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On the surface, this doesn't seem like much of a series. After all, it's one seed vs. four seed, and this particular one has by far the best record in the league -- and the four didn't even make the playoffs until the last weekend of the season.
But don't think the L.A. Sparks are taking this series lightly. Sacramento, unlike a lot of teams in the league, has no fear of L.A. and with Yolanda Griffith, has a chance to match up with Lisa Leslie in the paint. Sacramento struggled early, and is certainly still an underdog due to its wildly inconsistent perimeter game, but two hot shooting nights could turn this from a typical yawner one vs. four into a full-on, elbows flying, battle to the bitter end.
The Monarchs, in fact, may benefit from playing L.A. in the opening round rather than in the second round because there's a longer break before the first game, and the Sacramento veterans can use the rest.
And also pay attention to the officiating. The more whistles that blow, the better for the Monarchs, who have much superior depth to the very talented but very thin Sparks.
Point guard: At times, Nikki Teasley is the best point guard in the WNBA. She can be a brilliant passer (she did, after all, lead the league in assists) and she can be deadly from three-point range. But she's also capable of disappearing into another dimension on the court, and despite being 6-0, is all but invisible for long stretches. Ticha Penicheiro, who had led the league in assists every year she has been in the league, did not have a great season. She shot the ball very well, for her, but her assist/turnover ratio was significantly down. It also appears that she and coach/general manager John Whisenant are not on the same page all the time, and she's nursing a forefoot sprain (I thought that was a horse-racing injury) she suffered Saturday against Houston. Still, Penicheiro is a wonderful point guard, surprisingly good defensively (fifth in the league in steals) and is much more consistent than Teasley. When Teasley's playing well, there's no doubt she's better, but you never know which Nikki will show up. Edge: L.A>
Shooting guard: Edna Campbell is listed as the starter, but for no apparent reason, Whisenant only plays her for about six or seven minutes total. Kara Lawson gets most of the time (24.3 mpg) and Ruthie Bolton gets almost as much as Campbell (13.8 mpg to 15.1). So for the purposes of this analysis, we'll call Lawson the starter, and she's a limited player. She's very strong, can get hot from outside and can spark the team with some big plays. But her size is a factor, and she has trouble with bigger guards -- which the Sparks don't have, unless they put Teasley on her. Most likely, she matches up with Tamecka Dixon, who is quicker, more experienced, a better shooter, a better rebounder and a better ballhandler. But Dixon isn't exactly Miss Consistency either, so if Dixon is down and Lawson is up, this matchup works for Sacramento. Usually, however, it's the other way around. Edge: L.A.
Small forward: There's nothing small about DeMya Walker. She's a legit 6-3, and she will give Mwadi Mabika problems on defense. Mabika is quicker, but not that much, and it will be much harder for her to get her 14.4 ppg. On the other hand, Walker tops out at 14 points in a single game (she averaged just 8.4), hasn't made a three-pointer all year and is a shaky free-throw shooter. But Mabika comes in second on rebounding, and suprisingly, assists, though Mabika has many fewer turnovers. It's certainly possible that Walker could limit Mabika enough that this matchup is dead even, but Mabika's ability to shoot threes and make free throws (82.4%) are enough to tilt the scales. Edge: L.A.
Power forward: We'll assume Christi Thomas holds on to her starting spot, and the rookie from Georgia deserves to. She's rebounded well, scored a little and even made five of 11 three-pointers (the same, by the way, as Tamecka Dixon). This will be her first taste of the playoffs, though, and she's got a tough matchup in Tangela Smith, who is one of the best shooting power forwards in the league -- when she's on. Sadly for Sacramento fans, Smith is just as likely to go four for 13 as she is to go seven of 11, and for the Monarchs to be successful, she needs to shoot well. Thomas is a better rebounder but not quite as experienced. Slight Edge: Sacramento.
Center: First, let's point out that Yolanda Griffith has had a great season. Her numbers: 14.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 51.9% from the field, 2.2 spg, 1.2 bpg. A case could certainly be made that she's the second-best post player in the league. Luckily for L.A. fans, the Sparks have the best, in the marvelous Lisa Leslie, who will win the MVP award unless several voters disconnected their brains before filling in the ballot. Leslie has been dominant at both ends of the floor, and aside from a tendency to foul a little too much and throw the ball away a little too often, she's everything one could ask for in a post player. Edge: L.A., but not as big as you might think.
Bench: The word is that Laura Macchi and Raffaelia Masciadri will return from Italy for the playoffs, but the only one who will make a difference for the Sparks is Macchi, who started 15 games before the break. The 6-2 Macchi shot the ball very well (49.1%) but did little else of note -- and almost never passed the ball. Tamika Whitmore also shot well, but she's an inconsistent rebounder (to put it in a nice way) and averages one assist every 35.4 minutes. The rest of the L.A. bench is pretty worthless, while Sacramento can bring in Ruthie Bolton (who can still shoot it), Rebekkah Brunson (an energetic rebounding rookie), Hamchetou Maiga (a solid defender who can occasionally get to the hoop) and Edna Campbell (the nominal starter). This depth gives Whisenant a lot of options, and he can mix and match until he finds a five that clicks. Edge: Sacramento.
Coaching: Who needs a coach? The Sparks lost Michael Cooper in July and didn't even bother to replace him. Assistants Karleen Thompson and Ryan Weisenberg have taken over, and there hasn't been any dropoff. Of course, L.A. is led by a core of veterans, but still, those who believe in the importance of the genius of coaches have to pause a bit when considering the Sparks. John Whisenant has had his problems getting through to his team during the season, but lately they've played much better defense and are a little smoother offensively. Still, Whisenant has yet to show he's mastered the WNBA. Edge: Even.
Intangibles: These two teams don't get along, just like their big brothers in the NBA. The Monarchs, unlike a lot of WNBA teams, are not at all intimidated by the Sparks, and in fact laid a whipping on L.A. in L.A. this summer. The first game at home really helps Sacramento, but the Monarchs have to win -- nobody's going to go to Staples and win two in a row. But pressure is what the playoffs are all about, and the Sparks and Monarchs are both veteran teams that will handle it equally well. Edge: Even.
In conclusion: For L.A. the question is consistency. If Nikki Teasley and Tamecka Dixon show up every night, the Sparks will win this series, but if one or both disappears for any length of time, the Monarchs have the best chance of any WNBA team of beating them. To do that, though, Sacramento must have two of the following three shooting well: Kara Lawson, Tangela Smith and Ruthie Bolton. If the Monarchs don't make perimeter shots, they simply can't score enough to keep up with L.A. If they get good shooting two of the three nights, though, this could be the upset of the playoffs. Still, L.A. in three. 9/21/04
