The fact that the WNBA announced its eight franchises for next summer has already been the trigger for lots of comment, and occasional fulmination, from various locations in the sporting spectrum. But even though the cities designated by Pope David Stern can be humbly thankful for the honor bestowed upon them, what's more important is the direction of professional women's basketball in America.
In the long run, plain and simple, the WNBA is the way to go -- and not coincidentally, is the way for the women's pro game to survive.
I have nothing against the ABL, and in an ideal world, both organizations would make it. Realistically, though, only one will, and that one will be the one that can survive the inevitable growing pains of a new operation.
Let's start with franchise stability, a must for any sporting operation. Franchise stability allows teams to develop a fan base that can grow over time. Ideally, that fan base will become multi-generational, with mothers telling daughters how they saw Jennifer Azzi back in '96, and daughters claiming that she would never have made it in the 2036 version of the game.
How stable is the NBA? On the professional scale, very stable. There have been franchise shifts, and there will undoubtedly be more, but for the most part, NBA teams stay home. This leads to fan loyalty, increased merchandise sales and a smoother all-around operation.
How stable will the WNBA be? Very. Even if revenue doesn't match expenditures, the NBA won't panic. There's plenty of time to build a team from the ground up -- and if there are a few years of million-dollar losses, then the league will put out a new t-shirt or something and all will be well.
In short, franchise movement will be minimal, and expansion is easy.
Turning to the ABL, one sees an entirely different picture. The ABL is not a billion-dollar operation and it needs its teams to make money -- now. If they don't, or if some of them don't, the whole league is in danger. (This is exactly what's happening in the Canadian Football League, which may well fold at the end of this season. The four or five successful franchises can't carry the weight of the ones who going bankrupt.)
How do professional sports teams make money? They win. Winning teams excite the fans; losing teams don't. The only way a loser can survive is with an established fan base -- which the ABL obviously does not have.
Simple mathematics tells us that some of the ABL teams will have losing records. In fact, it's possible that as many as five will wind up on the wrong side of .500. How well will those teams draw come February? And how much of the winning teams' profits will they gobble up?
The problems don't end there. Let's just say that Seattle struggles all season -- does the ABNL have the financial wherewhithal to absorb another year of million-dollar losses? And another year after that?
Unlikely. Which means Seattle will move. Somewhere. As will the other losingest team. And there goes franchise stability. And there goes the long-term fan base. And left behind are fans who gave their heart and soul to teams that no longer exist.
It's a given that the New York and L.A. WNBA franchises aren't going to make money -- but the WNBA can afford to take the long view. The presence of teams in those major media markets guarantees that attention will be paid. And winning teams in those cities, over time, will draw. It might not be 1997 (in fact, I guarantee it won't be), and it might not even be 2000. But come 2005, if there is a market for professional women's basketball, New York and L.A. will be well-established teams with a wide fan base and solid media backing.
Charlotte and Sacramento, though, are the other end of the WNBA spectrum. These are places where the NBA teams sell out and there is limited competition from other major leagues, or even minor ones.
Here, the WNBA expects to actually make a profit and put 6,000 fans in those big arenas. And, given time, it could happen. But if it doesn't happen right away, the WNBA has the resources to wait for the good times to come. If attendance just increases year to year, and not necessarily dramatically, then the investment is justified.
In the long run, of course, the NBA would like nothing better than to have men's and women's teams in each of its cities, playing to their own audiences in jam-packed arenas. The All-Star weekend would feature a men's and women's game, and the NBA/WNBA finals would be two months of compelling worldwide drama, marching side-by-side through the ratings doldrums of June.
Of course, the ABL has the same dream, and if enough tickets are sold this year to make that dream a reality, I'll be cheering along with everyone else. It doesn't matter to me, nor should it to those who love women's basketball, which league is around in 2005. The important thing is that there is a professional women's league in the United States, and that it has staked out its territory in the sports consciousness of America as a legitimate and important member of what, up to now, has been strictly a club for men.
10/30/96