How much do those 52 wins really mean?
By Clay Kallam
PublisherSome people don't like the idea of winning too many games in a row. It makes them nervous.
After all, the odds say that sooner or later everyone has to lose. Look at UNLV in 1992 -- unbeaten going into the NCAA finals, and a footnote two hours later. Even the U.S. men finally lost in the Olympics, even though it took some serious bad luck.
So after 52 straight, do the American women have anything to worry about? Well, they were tied with Italy 33-33 at halftime July 13, in their final tuneup for the real deal. In fact, it was only 45-42 with 16:05 left in the game.
Then Nikki McCray, who Coach Tara VanDerveer had been less than happy with earlier in the year-long USA effort, had two baskets and two steals in 51 seconds, and suddenly it was 55-42. The Italians got the ball inside to 6-7 Guiseppina Tufano for a hoop with 14:28 left -- and neglected to score again until there were just 35 seconds remaining in the game.
If you're counting, that turned into a 29-0 run and an eventual 86-46 win.
Sure, it wasn't a real confidence builder for the Italians, but it wasn't all that heartwarming to VanDerveer and the Americans either. That means in their last four halves of basketball, foreign teams have stayed right with them. That 80-79 defeat of a Russian team that used just six players was far from convincing, and a 33-33 tie at half at home against a team that's not considered a gold medal threat isn't going to lead to a lot of overconfidence.
Of course, that may be a good thing. If the United States women had come into the Olympics riding a long series of blowouts, they might have been too cocky to take care of business -- which everyone familiar with the international scene says will be a lot tougher in Atlanta. The international teams don't really care about exhibitions and often don't have the same players that they will when the action gets serious. And even if the roster is the same, how the talent will be deployed is very likely to be completely different.
But you know, I think I'd rather be 52-0 than 26-26 coming into the Olympics. And I'd rather have beaten everybody who'd play my team than have the psychological barrier of a loss to overcome. And I definitely would rather play in front of a packed gym of rabid fans than have to battle the always idiosyncratic international officiating in Berlin or Sydney.
And I'd be really happy to see Ruthie Bolton back in action after her knee injury. The 5-8 guard is one of the best players in the world and is America's second-leading scorer -- but the first injury of her career kept her out of the game with Russia and no one was really too sure how serious it was. But her six-of-nine shooting against the Italians was good news indeed for the U.S. of A., which needs her outside shooting and savvy to offset its very real weaknesses.
Those, as people close to the team realize all too well, are size, offensive rebounding and pressure, and any one of the three could prove fatal in Atlanta.
The first two are obviously related, and even though Lisa Leslie is one of the top players in the world, she's still a sleek 6-5 and doesn't have the body to bang with monsters like 6-9 Zheng Hiaxia of China on the block. Katrina McClain is one of the world's best inside players, but she's just 6-2 -- and that's not the kind of size you'd like to have at power forward.
And where that shows most is on the offensive boards. Not only do the Americans get fewer offensive rebounds than they should, they also have shown a tendency to give up too many. Of course, if opponents focus on crashing the boards in pursuit of missed shots, and don't get the rebound, then they'll get to watch Bolton, Teresa Edwards and Jennifer Azzi run a fast break that the Lakers would envy, so there is risk. Still, it's a chink in the armor, and don't think the international teams will try to exploit it at every opportunity.
And that leads to the last element: pressure. The international teams have nothing to lose, so why not gamble? Why not send everyone to the boards all game and hope to get lucky? If the Americans win by 30 instead of 15, what's been lost? No one expects Ukraine or Australia to do much anyway, so why not play the low percentages and hope for a big payoff?
At the same time, the Americans have to win. Not only do they have to justify the enormous hype they have been subjected to, and not only do they have to look forward to being forever known as choke artists if they win 52 games when it doesn't count and blow it under the spotlight in Atlanta, they also carry the burden of the women's game in America. Both the ABL and the WNBA are counting on an American sweep to the gold to capture the imagination of the sporting public and create a whole new generation of fans to support one or both pro leagues.
The schedule in Atlanta should supply some early answers. If the Americans cruise past Cuba and the Ukraine in the first two games, it will be a sign that the engine is in gear. Only Australia is a threat in the final three games of pool play, and a dominating win there would set the stage for the playoffs.
The other pool is a bit tougher, and once the single-elimination medal round begins, the pressure will become a major issue. Those close wins over Canada and Russia in exhibition play could have become losses with just a couple of missed baskets or blown calls -- and those are the teams the Americans will have to beat in the final three games that they can't afford to lose.
It says here they won't, but a cakewalk is out of the question. If the United States women win the gold, they will have to survive at least one gutcheck in the final minute -- which, if you think about it, is as it should be. Those who deserve gold medals should earn them, and though the Americans have already paid a high price in time, energy and money to get this far, the last lap will be, and ought to be, the toughest.
On the inside, it will be a soul-wrenching experience, but for those of us on the outside, it should be a wonderful two weeks of athletic drama. Will it have a happy ending for America? Stay tuned -- and enjoy the ride.
