By Clay Kallam
Publisher
With two rounds of play left in the 1996 Summer Olympic Games, there are two questions: Can the undefeated and apparently invincible Americans beat a very good team five times in a row? And which Ukrainian team will show up?
United States (6-0) vs. Australia (4-2), 2 p.m. (Pacific time), Aug. 2: Here's a number for you: 41. That's how many layups the Americans had in their 108-93 win over Japan, and even though the score looked close, the issue was never really in doubt.
Forty-one layups. That amazing total tells Australia that if the United States gets into the open floor, it's over. That tells the Australians they must be rebounding demons, because if the Americans have to spend all their energy boxing off and crashing the boards, then they won't be sending two or three players downcourt -- and Teresa Edwards won't be dishing out double figures in assists and they won't be shooting 58 percent from the floor.
And if anyone can figure out how to beat the United States, it will be Australia. This will be the fifth matchup between the two teams in the last three months -- three coming in Australia in May and one in pool play in Atlanta.
And the odds help too. Look at it this way: For the sake of argmument, let's say the Americans are so much better than the Australians that they'd beat them eight out of ten times, or even nine out of ten. That would mean, though, that the Australians would still win one in a series, and after five losses, the chances of a win go up each time out.
This comforting mathematical teddy bear is a little less comforting, though, when another fact is factored in. In the three wins in Australia, Katrina McClain did not play -- and she's definitely playing in Atlanta. She had 24 points (on 12-of-14 shooting) and 11 rebounds against Australia in that 96-79 win July 27, and she added 18 points and an American record 16 rebounds against Japan July 31.
Another American item: Tara VanDerveer has finally settled on her rotation. The received wisdom in basketball is that it's hard to be effective with a rotation of more than eight or nine players, but up to now the American routs have allowed VanDerveer to play everyone fairly equally. Against Japan, though, with everything on the line, it became clear who will be on the floor when the game's on the line. The starting five is set -- McClain, Edwards, Lisa Leslie (and her American record 35 points against the tiny Japanese), Sheryl Swoopes and Ruth Bolton -- and off the bench will come Nikki McCray (12 points on five-of-five shooting in 24 minutes), musclewoman Venus Lacey (10 points in 12 minutes) and entertaining point guard Dawn Staley (11 minutes). Carla McGhee and Jennifer Azzi each had nine minutes and some big moments, but if VanDerveer goes any deeper in the rotation than that, it will only be because of fouls, injuries or blowouts.
But again, there is one very troubling area for the United States: free-throw shooting. The Americans are shooting just 64 percent from the line at the Olympics, and in a close game, that could be the difference.
The Australians are living proof. They made eight-of-nine free throws in overtime and 75 percent overall to outlast Russia 74-70 and earn another shot at the United States.
But that win over Russia was about more than free throws. It was a physical, confrontational game -- so confrontational that the Russians refused to even shake hands with the Australians after the game.
The hero for the winners was Sandy Brondello, who finished with 13 points and made five-of-six free throws in OT, but a lot of credit has to go the Australian defense, which stopped Russia on four of its last five overtime possessions.
Actually, Australia should have won more easily. They outshot Russia 79-66, but hit just 35 percent from the field (up from 22 percent against the Ukraine) and were zero-of-nine from three-point range -- a dismal performance from a team known for its three-point shooting.
It could be that the Australians' pedal-to-the-metal style of play has worn them down. It also could be that the law of averages is just waiting to even out against the Americans, and propel the Australians into the gold medal game.
Brazil (6-0) vs. Ukraine (4-2), noon, Aug. 2: Lydumila Nazarenko has been the rock for the Ukrainians, but they need Maria Tkachenko to get rolling if they plan to beat the defending world champion Brazilians. Nazarenko had 16 points as the Ukraine got by Italy 59-50 July 31, and Yelena Zhirko had 15 points and 15 rebounds, but Tkachenko, a veteran of the Unified gold medal team of 1992, will have to do better than four-of-13 shooting.
But the Ukrainians have been nothing if not schizophrenic, so there's certainly hope they can do better than the 31 percent shooting they mustered against Italy. They lost to the United States 98-65 in the second game of pool play and then were stunned by Korea, 72-67. Since then, though, their defense has sparked them to wins over Australia and Italy, and they now find themselves one supreme effort away from the gold medal game.
Unfortunately, for that dream, the unbeaten Brazilians stand in the way -- and Hortencia is also standing, which is even worse news. Brazil's star guard sprained her ankle against Russia, but played 29 minutes in the 101-69 win over Cuba. She only took eight shots, but made five, and got to the free throw line eight times, which means she's getting back on track.
Six-four Janeth Arcain has never gotten off track, and had 19 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the Cuban rout, while Maria Paula Silva had 19 points and Marta De Sooza Sobral added 18 and 10 rebounds.
That kind of balance has been typical for the Brazilians, who have rolled through their games with barely a deep breath -- and unless Ukraine plays its best game so far, will most likely do the same Aug. 2.
Classification game results: China finally got it going against Zaire, but of course so has everybody.
Zheng Haixia finally broke out with 26 points (on 11-of-16 shooting) and 10 rebounds, and Jun Liu added 16, so the Chinese, who had set their sights on a medal in the '96 games, will play for ninth place Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
The Zairois put up a fight in this, scoring 15 of 17 points late in the first half to cut the margin to 39-34, but Zheng was simply too tough. Mabika Mwadi continued her fine scoring efforts with 30 points on 13-of-25 shooting but turnover-plagued Zaire only had nine assists.
The other winless team in Atlanta, Canada, made yet another run at victory, leading 63-53 midway through the second half against Korea -- but the Canadians made only one basket in the final 4:22 to wind up on the short end of an 88-79 score.
One big reason was Chun Joo-Weon, who scored 31 points. Another was the 53.4 percent shooting as a team.
The mystery was how Canada managed to lose while compiling a 36-20 edge on the boards and hitting a respectable three of nine from three-point range. Dianne Norman had 17 points and eight rebounds, but the Canadians dropped to 0-6. They will play Zaire in the 11th place game at noon Aug. 3.