By Clay Kallam
Publisher
It's time to get serious.
That United States 56-game winning streak? Trivia. China's silver medal in 1992? Ancient history. Ukraine's early-round Olympic struggles? Yesterday's news.
After five games in Atlanta that eliminated four of the 12 teams, it takes three more wins to get the gold. A loss in the first single-elimination round means no medal, a loss in the second means the bronze is the best that can be done, and a loss in the third means silver, not the top prize.
Oh, there will be loser's bracket games (called classification games, for no apparent reason), and someone will be playing for seventh place at 7 a.m. (Pacific time) Saturday, but the medals are the goal. Without a first-round win, though, that goal is gone, so here's a look at Wednesday's matchups.
United States (5-0) vs. Japan (2-3), 2 p.m.: The American juggernaut continues to roll, even though Korea was within 10 points at halftime in the final game of pool play. But Coach Tara VanDerveer reached into her bag of tricks, pulled out a matchup zone, and Korea missed 13 of its first 14 second half shots and wound up six for 38 over the last 20 minutes.
That kind of shooting will do you in against the local high school team, and against the United States, it opened the floodgates. Those same floodgates are poised to open again against the Japanese, as VanDerveer rested her key players and got lots of work for the bench -- which is more than an afterthought.
The biggest American advantage is depth, and there's no telling where the next heroine will come from. Nikki McCray had a day against Korea, with 16 points (seven of nine shooting), nine rebounds and two assists in 22 minutes. Lisa Leslie did get 14 points and eight rebounds, and did so in just 16 minutes. Ruth Bolton had 15 points and two steals, Dawn Staley hit both her three-point attempts and Sheryl Swoopes was five-of-nine from the field and handed out four assists.
Against Japan, though, expect to see a more stable rotation, at least as long as the game is in doubt. That might be a little longer than some people expect, for the Japanese played well in a must-win situation against Canada. Mikiko Hagiwara hit a three-pointer to send the game into overtime and then scored nine of her 26 points in extra time to seal a 95-85 win.
Hagiwara's three was not an isolated incident, as the Japanese hit 12 of 24 from beyond the arc. Aki Ichijo and Taeko Oyama joined Hagiwara with four apiece, and that's how the Japanese will attack the United States. That kind of outside shooting will take the Americans out of a zone in a hurry, so VanDerveer's tactical quiver won't be quite as full.
Nonetheless, it would be an upset of monumental proportions if the smaller Japanese pulled out a win -- though here's a cautionary tale. Japan hit 27 of 31 free throws against Canada; the United States hit just 13 of 23.
Russia (4-1) vs. Australia (3-2), 5 p.m.: Which Australian team will show up? The one that won its first three? Or the one that shot a dismal 22 percent in a 54-48 loss to Ukraine Monday? If it's the latter, Russia will roll into the semis, as Yelena Baranova has apparently gotten a wakeup call. The smooth 6-4 Russian center scored 26 points and added 18 rebounds in the surprisingly easy 94-78 win over disappointing China Monday, and will be very difficult for the Australians to stop.
That task is made even harder by the fine play from Russian guards Yevgeniya Nikonova (16 points) and Irina Sumnikova (10 points and 10 assists) and inside options Elen Shakirova (nine points) and Svetlana Kouznetsova (15 points).
The Russians are also masters of tournament strategy, and expect to see some new twists, and even new players, unveiled now that the games are for real.
Australia, on the other hand, may be out of gas. The Aussies play 40 minutes of hard basketball, and they may have left it on the floor in those three wins and a tough loss to the United States. Michelle Timms shot poorly the last two games, and everyone from down under shot badly against Ukraine. Making just 15 out of 68 shots and converting no baskets for the last 3:30 is not the way you want to go into the medal round -- especially with a gold threat like Russia lining up against you.
Ukraine (3-2) vs. Italy (3-2), 7 p.m.: Ukraine only beat Zaire by 16 and lost to the United States by 33, yet finished second in Group B and got by tough Australia 54-48 despite an off game from Maria Tkachenko, the team's top scorer.
Lyudmila Nazarenko picked up the slack with 13 points and 15 rebounds and Oksana Dovgalyuk came out of nowhere to make five-of-nine shots and score lead Ukraine with 15 points. If Tkachenko bounces back, and Dovgalyuk can replicate that performance, Ukraine could find itself with a medal on Sunday.
Of course, the Italians have the same dream. They only lost by two to unbeaten Brazil despite a subpar game from star Catarina Pollini, who fouled out with just nine points. But 6-7 Guiseppina Tufano stepped up with 11 points and Susanna Bonfiglio had 15 and only a last second basket by Janeth Arcain salvaged the 75-73 win for Brazil.
Still, the Italians must find a way to stop Nazarenko and get Pollini going. She's had two off games in pool play, but there's no margin for error any more. She has to rise to the occasion if Italy is to get out of the first round -- if she doesn't, Ukraine will coast into the semifinals Friday.
Brazil (5-0) vs. Cuba (2-3), noon: Yamilet Martinez has made a statement at the Olympics. The 6-4 Cuban center has done it all in pool play, and finished her run with 18 points and 12 rebounds in the Cuban 73-59 rhumba past Zaire.
But if the Cubans have any hopes of getting by Brazil, their guards have to find a way to get the ball to Martinez while containing the Brazilian backcourt. They will most likely do well on the boards, and can look for 6-0 Maria Leon to get some points (she had 20 against the Zairois), but Brazil's quickness will probably be too much to handle.
That quickness will be augmented by the return of Hortencia, who missed almost three games with a badly sprained ankle. The 36-year-old was once considered the best player in the world, and the 5-8 guard can still shoot, drive and score with anyone. The word is she'll be back in action Wednesday, and that will make Cuba's task a great deal more difficult.
Of course, the Brazilians have other weapons. Janeth Arcain has had a wonderful Olympic run, capped with a 13-footer with three seconds left to beat Italy 75-73. She finished with 17 points, Maria Silva Paula had 15 and Marta Sobral De Sooza added 12 points and eight rebounds.
It would be a major upset if the Cubans found a way to get past Brazil, but their inside strength is always a threat. Cuba led the United States by seven in the first half of the first game, and could do the same against the Brazilians.
Classification games: China (1-4) will play Zaire (0-5) at 7 a.m., and even though Zheng Hiaxia has struggled in Atlanta, she will be enough to get the Chinese another win. Zaire has some good one-on-one players (Mabika Mwadi went for 27 against Cuba) but since there's not even one indoor court in all of Zaire, it's a little much to expect them to match up to the best in the world.
The Canadians (0-5), though, may be able to get that elusive first win against Korea (2-3). They made a run against Japan but needed to win by 22 to advance to the medal round -- and when it was clear that wouldn't happen, they seemed to run out of gas. The good news, though, is that the Canadians finally hit some threes (three of nine) and the Koreans may still be shellshocked after their second half collapse against the Americans.