By Clay Kallam
Publisher
Saturday's matchup between unbeaten Australia and unbeaten America is definitely going to be a highlight of the preliminary round. Not only are both teams 3-0, but the game is at 8 p.m. Atlanta time in the Georgia Dome -- which means 30,000 fans will be chanting "U-S-A", sportswriters will be trying to finagle their way inside and women's basketball will, for a few hours at least, be the focus of the Olympic Games.
But in some ways, the Australia-America game isn't that important. Both teams will move on to the single-elimination medal round, where it's a whole new world. Once you advance out of pool play, it doesn't matter whether you were 5-0 or 2-3 -- all that counts are the next three games. So let's take a look at how things are shaping up for the medal round, which begins July 31 in the Georgia Dome.
Brazil (3-0): Brazil was looking very good until the 6:44 mark of its 100-80 romp over Japan. That's when Hortencia stepped on a Japanese player's foot and went down -- for who knows how long? Sure, Hortencia is 36 now, but in her prime she was the best player in the world, and she's still very, very good.
The Brazilians are assured a spot in the medal round, but they'd much rather play the Americans in the finals than in the semifinals -- which would very likely happen if they don't come in first in Group A. They face a Chinese team that desperately needs to win (2 p.m. Pacific time) and will need Janeth Arcain and Maria Silva Paula to continue their fine play, and for 6-2 Marta Sobral De Sooza to counter 6-8 Zheng Hiaxia.
With Hortencia back (and unless she really tore up her ankle she will be) the Brazilians are on course for a medal. If she's at 100 percent, that could be a gold medal, and neither Brazil nor the United States wants to meet in the semifinals. But unless the Brazilians hang on without Hortencia, that coudl happen -- and the loser might wind up with no medal at all.
Russia (2-1): After Brazil, it's a tossup in Group A. The Russians knocked off Italy 75-70, putting them in position for the medal round if they can manage one more win. Conventional wisdom would say that will happen against Canada at 7 p.m. tomorrow, but the Canadians just aren't as bad as they're playing. They have an outside chance to make it to the medal round -- but only if they beat the Russians.
Still, the win over Italy has to give the Russians some confidence. Elen Shakirova scored 24 points and managed 12 rebounds and Yelena Baranova, a superb player, added 14. The pleasant surprise, though, was Yevgeniya Nikonova, who stepped for injured Svetlana Antipova at guard and not only finished with 14 points, but hit a three-pointer late in the game to put Russia up for good.
That kind of depth, and lots of international experience, make the Russians a very good bet to make the medal round and advance to the semifinals.
Italy (2-1):: The Italians were rolling right along until that loss to the Russians, and next up is a Japanese team that has already upset China. If Catarina Pollini keeps it up (she had 22 points and eight rebounds against Russia), the Italians should clinch a medal round spot at noon Saturday -- but if they don't, then they will have to beat Brazil to be sure of advancing, and that's not something to bet the rent on.
Susanna Bonfiglio is a fine young player and 6-7 Guiseppina Tufano is, well, 6-7, and the disciplined, flex-like offense that the Italians use can frustrate teams that want to get out and run. They'll even play a little zone, which is unusual in this Olympics, but it looks like they will have to overachieve to medal. Chances for the medal round, though, are looking good.
Japan (1-2): The Japanese haven't been to the Olympics since 1976, when they finished fifth out of six teams, but they're in sight of a medal round berth after stunning China in the second game. A win against Italy would put them in great position, especially as they finish with winless Canada, but their lack of size will be an issue.
Brazil, for example, outrebounded them 54-27 and put up 84 shots in 40 minutes, and a similar lackluster showing on the boards will doom them againt both Italy and Canada. In the 75-72 win over China, the Japanese were only outrebounded by four, and that's what needs to happen to keep them in the game against Italy.
Another key is three-point shooting. Japan has put up 38 threes in the last two games and needs to shoot and make those bombs on a regular basis. That opens up the inside for 5-10 Mikiko Hagiwara, who finds a way to score even though she's giving up four to six inches to every defender.
The Japanese are also very disciplined, which should make the Italian matchup both low-scoring and a test of will. It's also a test of talent, though, and the Italians seem to have a little more. The medal round may be too high a mountain to climb this time, and even if Japan does make it, the trip won't last long.
China (1-2): At first considered a gold medal contender, the Chinese are now struggling to survive. They have Brazil and Russia left, and must win at least one to have any chance. They really need to win both to assure themselves a slot in the medal round because if they tie with the Japanese at 2-3 for the last spot, the Japanese will move on thanks to that 75-72 win.
The Chinese had every chance to fold against Canada Thursday, trailing 11-0 in the early going. But 6-8 Zheng Hiaxia made a 14-footer (about 12 feet further out than she usually shoots) to cap a first-half comeback and a defensive surge blanked the Canadians for a 5:18 stretch of the second half to assure the 61-49 win.
The Brazil game (at 2 p.m. Saturday) is more than just a key game -- it will show whether the Chinese have any chance at a medal. If the Brazilians dominate (especially without Hortencia), then China will just be along for the ride in the medal round. But if the Chinese play Brazil on even terms, and somehow move on, then a medal is a possibility.
One aspect of their game that must improve, though, is free throw shooting. The Chinese have made just 18 of 31 in their last two games, and that won't cut it against Brazil and Russia.
Canada (0-3): Can you say "three-point shooting"? So can the Canadians -- they just can't make any. After an 0-for-12 performance Tuesday, they needed to do better against China, and did. One-for-12, however, isn't the kind of improvement they needed, and then blowing an early 11-0 lead may have shut the door on Canada's medal hopes.
Still, there is hope. Russia hasn't looked unbeatable, and if the Canadians can pull off an improbable upset at 7 p.m. tomorrow, they finish against Japan and might qualify for the medal round.
But that will be about it for the Canadians, who just haven't found the spark they needed in Atlanta.
United States (3-0): They've lived up to the hype -- which is an achievement in itself.
More important, though, they've shown an unprecedented depth. Jennifer Azzi, who had been unheard from the first two games, got some playing time in the 107-47 rout of Zaire and finished with 18 points on six-of-eight shooting. Carla McGhee also got an extended run, and responded with 10 points and four rebounds.
And the Americans also got a break. They knew Lisa Leslie would get in foul trouble at least once, and what better game to have it happen than the one against Zaire? Leslie played only nine minutes, but it didn't matter at all.
The reason it didn't matter is the other reason the United States looks like a gold medal squad: defense. Zaire shot just 29.2 percent and turned the ball over 24 times against waves of U.S. defenders.
Of course it won't be as easy at 5 p.m. Saturday against the unbeaten Australians, but remember that the Americans beat the Australians three times in Australia earlier this year. Still, it's the first critical game of the Olympics, and the United States must win to finish first in Group B and get that good seeding in the medal round. A loss here, and no matter what happens in the final game, the Americans will finish second.
Nonetheless, it should be a great game, and it will be a test of how the heavily hyped Americans respond to the pressure.
Australia (3-0): They can beat you outside, and they can beat you inside.
The Australians have gotten excellent post work from 6-1 Rachel Sporn, and superb backcourt play from 5-5 three-point bomber Michelle Timms and steady scorer Shelley Sandie. They are also very physical, very experienced and completely unintimidated by the Americans.
They are also assured of a medal round berth and though a win Saturday would be wonderful, they are a medal threat regardless. Their uptempo style, 40 minutes of hard work and excellent passing have shown them to be one of the best teams after three games of the Olympics. It says here they'lll still be one of the best after all the games have been played -- the only question is what color the medal will be.
Cuba (1-2): A win over Ukraine at 9 a.m. Saturday puts the Cubans into the medal round, but even a loss isn't fatal. They finish against Zaire and would likely move on even with a 2-3 record.
Naturally, they'd rather go 3-2 and get a break in the first round of the playoffs, but they're going to need better backcourt play to make that happen. Their big front line has done well (especially Yamilet Martinez), but the guards have been too scattered to deliver the goods. They had just 10 assists in the 75-63 loss to Australia and turned the ball over 20 times against the Americans.
So far, the Cubans have stayed true to form: They've beaten who they're supposed to beat and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to. The Ukraine game, though, is a tossup, and thus will give a truer picture of the Cuban team than we've had up to this point.
Ukraine (1-2): How the mighty have fallen. Ukraine, like China, was considered a medal possibility before the Olympics, and now is struggling to just make the medal round.
The 9 a.m. game against Cuba is crucial because Ukraine finishes up with Australia, a team that's playing very well. If the Ukrainians can squeeze out one more win, they have a chance to move on, but two losses and it will be a long, and early, plane ride home.
Why have the Ukrainians done so poorly? In their upset loss to Korea, they turned the ball over 21 times and played lazy defense. In their thrashing by the United States, they did nothing. And they only beat Zaire by 16. Simply put, they're playing badly -- and they should be doing much better.
Korea (1-2): Now here's a surprise. No one expected that the Koreans would have a chance to move on to the medal round, but they do. Thanks to inspired three-point shooting in the 72-67 win over Ukraine, they look like a lock to finish 2-3 (Zaire is up Saturday and the United States Monday) -- which could get them into the medal round.
What the Koreans really need is for Cuba to beat Ukraine, which would mean that the worst that could happen would be a tie with Ukraine for fourth. That tie would be broken by head-to-head results, which would send Korea on to face Brazil or Russia in the first round.
Well, maybe it wouldn't be a long trip through the medal round, but just getting there would be a step back toward respectability for Korea, which won the silver in 1984, finished seventh in '88 and didn't qualify at all in '92.
Zaire (0-3): There isn't a single indoor court in all of Zaire, which makes that 81-65 loss to Ukraine in the first round look pretty good. Since then, it's just gotten uglier for the Africans, who nonetheless have shown some one-on-one ability and athleticism.
The best chance for a win looks like Saturday at 7 a.m. against Korea, but given Korea's shot at the medal round, they won't be looking past Zaire.
Still, 24-year-old Lukangu Ngalula has shown she can play with the big girls and 6-2 Muane Tshijuka had her moments against Australia.