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The picture is starting to come into focus. The Brazilians and Americans are definite gold medal contenders. Ukraine, China and Russia look like pretenders. Australia and Italy have yet to be tested -- but will be July 25.
The home team has gotten most of the press, and all of the TV time, but for good reason: The Americans look like the class of the tournament. They demolished a solid Ukrainian team 98-65 and once again showed their remarkable depth and balance. Ruth Bolton led all scorers with 21, and four other Americans (Lisa Leslie, Sheryl Swoopes, Teresa Edwards and Katrina McClain) were in double figures. They shot 57.1 percent from the field (50 percent from three-point distance) and held Ukraine to 39 percent. They dominated the boards, 38-23, and nearly doubled the Ukraine in assists, with Swoopes having seven of the United States' 23.
And all this against a team many thought was a threat to Tara VanDerveer's 52-0 squad -- though veteran observers of international play warn that what goes on in the preliminary rounds may have nothing to do with what happens in the medal round. (To recapitulate: The top four teams in the two six-team pools advance to a single-elimination playoff to determine the medalists. A team unbeaten in pool play could lose in the first round of medal play and get nothing; a fourth-place finisher in the pool could win the gold.)
But the American romp had to take second billing to the first stunning upset of the Games: Japan 75, China 72. Led by 6-8, 253-pound Zheng Xiahia, China was expected to be a medal threat, but now the Chinese are 0-2 and face what amounts to an elimination game at 7 p.m. (Pacific time) July 25 against Canada. A third straight loss would be yet another blow to China's reeling Atlanta contingent, and prove once again that size isn't everything in basketball.
The Japanese had no one taller than six feet to guard Zheng, who finished with 31 points and had 16 rebounds. But after Mikiko Hagiwara scored with 59 seconds left to give Japan a 73-72 lead, Zheng missed an inside shot, the Japanese rebounded, made their free throws and started thinking about the medal round. Of course, they'll have to get by Brazil July 25, which looks like a tougher task than it did before yesterday's game.
It wasn't surprising that Brazil defeated Russia, actually, but rather that the South Americans did it so easily. Thirty-six-year-old Hortencia Oliva, coming back after giving birth, flashed the skills that made her the best player in the world in her prime, and sparked an 82-68 win. The Brazilians continue to get strong play from Maria Silva and Janeth Arcain and look like the heavy favorites from Group A.
The Russians weren't helped by the loss of Svetlana Antipova to an ankle injury. Antipova is a key part of the Russian three-guard rotation, and her absence contributed to Russia's 39 percent shooting and inability to get anything going against the fast and athletic Brazilians.
Things won't get any easier July 25 when they meet Italy at 7 a.m. The Italians are playing very well, with wins over China and Canada, and they managed Tuesday's 59-54 victory over the North Americans with a limited contribution from Caterina Pollini. She had only four points, and by all accounts, is Italy's best player -- but the difference in the game was three-point shooting. Italy hit eight of 13 (including three of four from Viviana Ballabio) while Canada was zero for seven, which offset an incredible 33-15 Canadian rebounding edge. Neither team shot well, but the Italians caught fire in the second half to overcome a ten-point deficit and took the lead for good with three minutes left.
If Italy can keep get Pollini in gear against Russia, the Italians will be all but assured a berth in the medal round and remove any Russian margin for error.
The Canadians have used up all their coupons already, and face a must-win game against China at 7 p.m. Like Japan, Canada doesn't have anyone big enough to battle Zheng (though look for 6-5 Merlelynn Lange-Harris to get more minutes) so will have to rely on quickness and discipline. But they're also going to need to make some three-pointers, an area of the game they've struggled with all year.
Meanwhile, Australia has been bottom-fishing in the lower half of the Group B bracket, picking off Korea in the first game and Zaire (91-45) in the second. The Aussies led by 33 at half, had a 53-28 rebounding edge and held Zaire to 29.7 percent shooting.
Next up is Cuba (2 p.m., July 25), which will be a tougher test. The Cubans thumped Korea 70-55 and can put themselves in good position to make the medal round with a win over Australia. The game will most likely be decided on the boards, where Cuba is very strong (a 49-26 rebounding edge against Korea), though the Caribbean team will need to cut down on the 22 turnovers it suffered Tuesday.
Korea will try to record its first win against Ukraine at noon, but its lack of size will give 6-4 Lyudmila Nazarenko a chance to show just how good she is.
And as for the Americans against Zaire at 9 a.m., don't expect much. The one-on-one style of the Zairois will play right into the aggressive team defense of the United States, and could easily result in another 100-point-plus effort from the home team.