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By Clay Kallam
Publisher
Riding the up escalator this season will be New Mexico, Colorado State and even Wyoming. Brigham Young has stepped off on one landing to admire the home furnishings, while UNLV and Utah are heading down. San Diego State, with a new coach, can't quite decide which way to go next, and poor Air Force is permanently at home in the bargain basement.
All that said, though, the Mountain West is still a nasty conference, as Iowa State discovered in postseason last year. A whole lot of supposedly major programs would find themselves scrambling to get into the top four in this league, and I'll guarantee you no one wants to have to travel to New Mexico for the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.
That would be true of the Lobos even if they weren't the best team in the league, but they are. OK, Colorado State fans claim the Rams should be number one, but suffice it to say that both will do just fine -- and if both don't collect 20 wins, it will be a surprise.
But looking past BYU (with Erin Thorn) and UNLV (with Constance Jinks) could be dangerous, and Utah always plays that great defense. So once again, the Mountain West will be the stealth conference in women's basketball. You may not hear much about it, but that doesn't mean it's not one of the most competitive around.
1. New Mexico (22-9 overall, 10-4 in conference): The wheel turns, and some teams rise while others fall. The Lobos are on the upswing, and having purchased the home court advantage in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, they are primed for their best season ever.
Their top three scorers and top five rebounders return, including 6-3 Jordan Adams, who needs only to improve on her shooting percentage (42) to become an elite player. Actually, it would help if the whole team shot a little better, but when four starters return, you should expect improvement. Otherwise, there aren't many weaknesses here, as the Lobos play excellent defense (opponents shot just 36%), rebound like crazy (+6.1) and with Adams, block a lot of shots. They handle well too, and Don Flanagan has been pointing this team to this season since he arrived six years ago.
It doesn't hurt that New Mexico has a great home court, and plays a tough preseason schedule. So the Lobos lose a couple early -- when it comes to the games that really matter, they'll be ready.
2. Colorado State (24-7, 12-2): It's hard to know what to make of the Rams. They have a new coach (Tom Collen left for Vanderbilt before getting tripped up by a faulty resume that may or may not have been his fault) and what amounts to five returning starters. They also, however, have a history of lapses in concentration (losses to Oakland and Marquette last year) which wind up hurting them in postseason.
Still, this should be the year, and Chris Denker, who fled Santa Clara, is the beneficiary. He not only returns 6-1 Ashley Augspurger, he also welcomes back Elizabeth English, who blew out her knee eight games into last season's schedule. Add Shannon Strecker and Jackie Campbell to the mix, and you've got a real nice nucleus. Unfortunately, the only missing piece is a big one: Angie Gorton led the team in scoring, rebounds, assists, blocks, free throws attempted and free-throw percentage, and was second in steals and third in shooting percentage.
Denker also has to learn a new league, and a much tougher one than the West Coast Conference, so there's just enough uncertainty to make Ram fans nervous. By season's end, though, Colorado State should be rolling again -- and if the Rams can avoid those annual stumbles against mediocre opposition, they might earn a good enough seed to avoid a powerhouse in the first round of the tournament.
3. Brigham Young (24-9, 10-4): Ask Iowa State how good the Cougars are. The Cyclones figured they had a nice first-round home win in hand last year, but thanks to some incredible clutch play by Stacy Jensen, BYU shocked Iowa State 75-69. The Cougs then gave Tennessee a battle before falling, and return three key players from that team.
Jensen, unfortunately, isn't one of them, and neither is Lisa Osguthorpe, both of the team's point guards. So job one for Jeff Judkins is to find someone to get the ball to WNBA shooting guard prospect Erin Thorn and 6-1 Jennifer Leitner. Both are seniors, as are six other returners, so it's clear that this is the season for Cougars to do more than just pull off one upset. Unfortunately, they were unable to come up with enough hard cash to buy some first-round home games in the tournament, so they need to win their preseason games against Oregon, George Washington, North Carolina State, Arizona and UC Santa Barbara, and then get past New Mexico and Colorado State in league play.
The key will be Thorn, who will battle New Mexico's Jordan Adams and UNLV's Constance Jinks for player of the year honors. If she has the great season she's capable of, BYU could be in the Elite Eight. But if point guard problems shackle this senior-laden team, the WNIT might be the best the postseason has to offer.
4. UNLV (23-8, 9-5): In the mid-majors, it runs in cycles. Teams can't just reload, like the Stanfords and Tennessees and Dukes, and when you have the chance for glory, you have to grab it.
The Lady Rebels came close last year, but lost four of their last six, including a first-round thumping at the hands of Minnesota in the Big Polka. A preseason schedule filled with dumplings like Eastern Washington, Sacramento State and Cal State Fullerton didn't help Regina Miller's team get ready for tough competition, and this year's slate is not much more ambitious. Of course, UNLV doesn't have Linda Frolich (now in the WNBA) or 6-6 Petra Glaser (transer), which puts the load squarely on the shoulders of 5-7 senior guard Constance Jinks. Jinks is a marvelous athlete, who can create her own shots, but this year she needs to upgrade her 114/108 assist/turnover ratio to show WNBA scouts she's ready for the big leagues.
She's also going to need some serious help from the 6-2 McCracklin sisters and a great season from senior Julia Gray. Still, in the hard world of big-time basketball, this is a year for the Rebels to step back. They had their shot last season and rang up 23 wins. If they get 20 this season, it will be a major achievement -- 16 is probably a better number.
5. Utah (15-12, 8-6): Reality settled in for the winter in Salt Lake City, as the Utes tumbled from their usual pre-eminence to a disappointing 15-12 finish. Sadly, things don't look much better for Elaine Elliott this year.
The top three scorers, and two of the top three rebounders, graduated, leaving 6-2 junior Carley Marshall (5.6 ppg) to build around. Junior Kelsey Stireman is solid at the point, though not much of a scorer, and after that, Elliott needs someone (Lana Sitterud maybe?) to step up bigtime.
Of course, Utah relies much more on defense than on offense, and did its usual superb job at that end (59 ppg allowed on 35.7% shooting), but you have to be able to score to win. You have to wonder if the Utes will score enough to match last year's win total, though Elliott is not accustomed to losing that many games. If she can get back to 20 wins with this group, and in this league, she should be coach of the year.
6. Wyoming (13-15, 5-9): The Cowgirls improved by two games last year, but this season could see a much bigger jump. Cindy Fisher lost only one player who did much (if 3.6 ppg and 2.6 rpg counts as 'much'), and she's got plenty of seniors to build around.
But Wyoming must defend better, and must handle better. Any team that turns the ball over more than 500 times has got a problem that needs addressing, and since the Cowgirls allowed opponents to shoot 14% better than they did, giving up the ball unnecessarily could be deadly. Wyoming also needs to do a little better than 3-8 on the road and desperately needs to beat one of the league's top four teams to build some confidence. If it's ever going to happen, this is the year.
7. San Diego State (10-18, 2-12): For a while there last season, things looked pretty good. The Aztecs were 7-5, and if you didn't look too closely at the schedule, they seemed primed for a decent MWC season. But Radford and Sacramento State aren't quite the same level as BYU and Colorado State, and San Diego State promptly lost 12 of 14 league games -- and said goodbye to Barb Smith.
A new coach (Jim Tomey) is naturally promising better days, but only two starters return. Jamey Cox is the key, as she's a superb shooter and will run the show, though Ashonda Williams could take off as well. Still, in this league, that's really not enough to get to .500, though another soft preseason should generate a little bit of confidence. Come March, however, the Aztecs will be on the outside looking in, as San Diego State is a couple years away from matching up with the powers in the Mountain West.
8. Air Force (4-24, 0-14): Ardie McInelly can say her first year saw improvement, but going from 3-25 to 4-24 isn't what she had in mind. Sadly, there's no reason to expect anything better this time around, as the Falcons simply can't compete in this sport in this conference.
LaToya Howell, Shawna Neff and Wendy Stillman will give it their all, but Stillman's the only senior on the team and there are only two players taller than 6-0 (and no one taller than 6-1). At least the Falcons beat Army and Navy.
10/9/02
