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Two things to remember: The Big 10 is always unpredictable, and it is a conference that rewards experience.
It's also a given that there will be at least one surprise team in the league and that it takes time to learn to deal with the physical, emotion and mental beating a team takes in a season. A youthful team will lose several games that it shouldn't. Those facts must be kept in mind when making a guess, however educated it is.
Who will be the surprise team of the league? If I knew that it wouldn't be a surprise, but Minnesota and Michigan State should not be overlooked this year. Who will benefit by having experience? Wisconsin has the best senior class and the best senior, and perhaps the best two seniors, in the league. That makes it a good possibility that a new team will wear the champion's crown in February.
There is of course a third factor. The following predictions are made with the assumption that there will be no injuries or defections. Unfortunately, history has shown that that is the riskiest prediction of all.
1. Wisconsin (18-10, 12-4, tied for second)
The Badgers finished the 2000-01 season tied for second in the league and return the heart and soul of that team. The top candidate for conference player of the year, Jessie Stomski, the reigning defensive player of the year, Tamara Moore and the best senior class in the league all will be back for a final shot at a Big 10 crown.
But this group, after finishing the regular season strong, collapsed in the postseason. The postseason disappointment raised questions about the team's mental toughness and how those questions are answered will determine Wisconsin's success this season.
The senior class -- Stomski, Moore, and Kyle Black -- are all the type of mentally tough leaders who should allow Wisconsin to put the questions behind it. Stomski, the poster-woman for the true power forward, returns in the best shape of her career and has developed her game facing the basket. She and Moore will give Wisconsin the best set of forwards in the conference. Emily Ashbaugh will start at center in place of the transferred Nina Smith. The Badgers will miss Smith's physical presence, but not her ever-wavering commitment to Jane Albright's program. Ashbaugh will not match Smith's physical presence but she should be a more consistent player, and should match the 11 points and six rebounds a game Smith gave the Badgers.
A surprise for the Badgers should be the play of point guard Candas Smith. The junior should give Wisconsin its finest point guard play since Keisha Anderson graduated to the pros.
The 2000 Badgers finished second in the conference in field goal percentage allowed, first in field goal percentage offense and second in rebounding margin. Moore, the returning Big 10 defensive player of the year, will lead a defense that will be more athletic, which should allow Wisconsin to maintain its defensive stats.
Three-point shooters Black and freshman Stephanie Rich are likely to provide enough of an outside threat to keep defenses from collapsing on Stomski, who will be the go-to player on offense and should get 16-18 shots a game. Rich, fellow- freshman Ebba Gebisa, Kristi Seeger and Leah Hefte make Wisconsin one of the few teams in the Big 10 with legitimate depth. If Jane Albright can keep her team focused, she should take home her first Big 10 championship.
It is a tribute to the Purdue program that the Boilermakers are not expected to fall much in the standings despite sustaining huge losses from last season's championship team. All-American Katie Douglas and all-Big 10 performer Camille Cooper took their talents to the WNBA. And after several brushes with police and perhaps more headbutting with Kristi Curry, Shalicia Hurns, a member of the all-freshman team, left the program. The losses leave Curry with only nine scholarship players on her roster. Worse, only three are true post players.
That means the Boilers' strength will be sophomores Erika Valek and Shereka Wright. Point guard Valek returns from ACL surgery to run the team. She's a natural point who's fundamentally solid and is capable of leading a top team. Her complement at small forward, Wright, will be the next great Purdue player. She was a member of the league's all-freshmen team in 2001, finished the season with 17 points in the national championship game and then averaged 14 points a game in leading the USA to a gold medal in the World University Games. These two should have solid years, but the success of the Boilers will depend on who steps up to help them.
Kelly Komara, an honorable mention all Big 10 player, returns at shooting guard. Komara will give the Boilers emotional leadership but she has been a streaky player, and a not especially good shooter, in the past. She will have to become more consistent and shoot better than 38% from the field as well as back up Valek at point guard, a position at which she does not shine.
The post players will be Mary Jo Noon, who returns from a knee injury after averaging five points and three rebounds a game last season. Laura Meadows, a senior transfer from Kentucky, will play power forward. Noon has been both injury- and foul-prone in her history at Purdue but she will need to play 30 minutes a game for the Boilers to repeat and there is nothing in her history to suggest that she is capable of that. Meadows will help offensively and on the boards, but her lack of quickness will likely be a detriment to Purdue's typical aggressive, effective defense.
The bench will consist of two players who played minimally last season, a JC transfer and an undersized and unheralded freshman post.
This is a team with no margin for error. The Boilermakers will not be able to survive injuries, foul problems or underachievers. One suspects that, if this group of players wore the jerseys of any school but Purdue, they would be considered a middle-of- the-pack Big 10 team. But they are Purdue and they have earned too much respect to be expected to finish there.
3. Michigan. (19-12, 10-6 5th)
Since taking the helm at Michigan, Sue Guevara has steadily improved the program. The Wolberines have now reached the point where they have to be considered title contenders.
But the Wolverines have fallen victim to the transfer bug infecting the Big 10, and the side effects may keep Guevara from hoisting her first championship trophy.
The strength of Michigan will lie in its frontcourt. LeeAnn Bies, Jennifer Smith and Raina Goodlow form the top post threesome in the league. Heather Oesterle, Alayne Ingram and freshman Tabitha Poole will give Michigan better-than-average production from the shooting guard-small forward spots. If the Big 10 played with four players, Michigan would be in excellent shape.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, the Big 10 is one of those conferences that play five players. It's that fifth spot -‹ the vital point guard position -‹ that will likely be Michigan's undoing. When Anne Thorius graduated, Guevara hoped to replace her with her backup on the Danish National Team, Mie Burlin. But Burlin changed her mind and didn't show up. Her absence leaves Michigan with no true point guard on the roster. What makes matters worse is that the Wolverines only have three guards and one is a junior who has played less than 100 minutes in her career. Guevara has recruited players to play a certain style. She likes to play aggressive, attacking basketball on both ends of the court. The players she brings in are among the most athletic in the conference. To run her offense, Guevara needs a heady point guard who can make quick, good decisions. Point guard by committee isn't likely to do it.
4. Penn State. (19-10, 11-5, fourth)
The Lady Lions could be known as the Girlish Kittens this year. Not because they won't be good -- they will be -- but because they will have one of the youngest teams in Rene Portland's tenure at PSU. Her 13-player roster features three seniors, including one who will join the team after PSU's traditionally lengthy volleyball season, and no juniors.
The 2000-2001 PSU squad led the Big 10 in scoring and rebounding. Although they will continue to run Portland's offense -- run, run and walk really, really fast -- it does not look like the 2001 version will be able to match the numbers put up by their predecessors. National freshman of the year Kelly Mazzante led the Lions in scoring and she will almost certainly do so again. She will not, however, have the benefit of all-Big 10 performers Lisa Shepherd and Maren Walseth on the floor with her to spread out the defense so Mazzante will be a marked woman. She has an amazingly quick release on her shot so she will still score, but she will have to work harder.
Rashana Barnes returns at center. She is one of the league's most athletic post players and led the league in blocked shots last season. But her blocks came with a price, as she was in almost constant foul trouble. She will have to learn that blocking two shots a game is not worth the fouls.
Katrena Carr, Jessica Brungo and Courtney Coleman each averaged over 14 minutes a game last season. They averaged 15 points a game as a unit. Portland lost 28 points a game in Shepherd and Walseth. It's difficult to see any of those three stepping up enough to make a significant dent in those lost points. That means that the freshmen will have to contribute significantly and immediately.
With the departure of point guard Ashley Luke, freshman Jess Strom will likely start at point. Freshman Tanisha Wright is a pure scorer who will pick up part of the slack.
It is hard to see this roster averaging 80 points a game, which means that the Lady Lions will have to improve a defense that gave up 70 points a game last year. Mazzante is their top defender and she'll have to carry a large load defensively in addition to the one she'll have on offense -- and it is on defense that PSU's youth will likely be a major problem. Teams this young are rarely teams with improved defense, which is why Penn State is picked to finish fourth.
5. Iowa. (21-10, 12-4, tied for second)
Going into the 2000 season, Iowa featured a new coach, Lisa Bluder, and many questions. The Hawkeyes responded wonderfully and won the postseason tournament after finishing tied for second during the regular season.
Going into 2001-02, Iowa features the reigning coach of the year and still many questions. Will the Hawkeyes match the results of the 2000 team? Probably not. But don't bet the house on it. The 2000 Hawkeyes featured the league's best starting guard combo in Cara Consuegra and Lindsey Meder. Both were named to the all-league team, and Consuegra matriculated to the WNBA. But the real key to the season was the emergence of senior post player Randi Peterson, who came from relative obscurity to all-conference honors by averaging 13 points and nine rebounds a game. It will be her loss that will hurt the most.
Meder, though, returns and will lead the team. She averaged 17 points a game, but her emotion and leadership will be just as valuable to Bluder. Illinois transfer Kristi Faulkner, Leah Magner and freshman Jenna Armstrong will provide the Hawks with solid perimeter play. Meder and Magner are two of the league's best three-point shooters and they both put the ball up without conscious. Those two force defenses to extend to 20 feet and can open up the middle for the post. Sophomore Jennie Lilly took advantage of this to have a solid freshman season. She averaged 10.7 points and 7.6 rebounds a game. Lillis and undersized (6-0) Jerica Watson are the only returning post players with experience. Freshman Jamie Carvey will have to step in and provide immediate assistance.
For the last several seasons, Iowa has played with the most heart in the league. There is no reason to assume that this will not be the case, but the Hawkeyes appear to be one player short of repeating last season's successes.
6. Ohio State (22-11, 6-10 8th)
The Buckeyes could accurately be called the questioned marks this year. In 2000, they endured as many injuries as any team in memory. Broken bones, ACLS -- they had them all.
And after enduring a 1999 season in which internal turmoil marked the program, Beth Burns and her team responded with tremendous heart and character to the injuries and earned the postseason WNIT championship. Four starters return from that team and the injured players all appear to have healed. If OSU can build on the success and not fall prey to the internal problems, the Buckeyes could make a major jump in the standings.
The major difficulty facing Burns is the loss of point guard Jamie Lewis, who was the heart of last year's overachievers. There is no true point guard on the roster even though OSU has a nice corps of talented guards, so Burns may end up playing with a point guard by committee. Those guards, led by returnees Tomeka Brown, Lauren Shenk, Caity Matter and top freshman Ashley Allen, will be a strong point of the team.
LaToya Turner suffered her second ACL injury last season. If she can return at something close to her pre-injury form, she and Courtney Coleman will form an excellent post combination. Coleman stepped in when Turner went down and led the team with 15 points and 7.5 rebounds a game. D'wan Shackleford will likely move to the bench from the starting lineup and provide depth in the post.
OSU will not be a great jump shooting team, but the Buckeyes had some excellent penetrators and will be aggressive on both offense and defense. Burns will benefit from having the league's best bench. If she can build on last season's postseason success and get adequate point guard play, OSU could jump up to challenge for a top spot in the league.
7. Indiana (20-11, 9-7, tied for sixth)
If the Hoosiers do indeed finish seventh, they may well wear the label of being the best seventh place team in the country. But in the world of 'what have you done for me lately?' that is sports, that would not be a label that they would choose.
Coach Kathi Bennett had a solid first season at Indiana, but she has not answered all the questions that are invariably asked of a new coach. The 2000 Hoosiers were a team with some talent, but also a team with major holes. Most of the talent is still there, but so are most of the holes. The Hoosiers will be led by all-league center 6-5 Jill Chapman. Chapman is a large body with nice hands and a good shooting touch. She is also an immature player whose refusal to stop reaching on defense limited her to only 26 minutes a game. If Indiana is to improve in the standings, Chapman must stay out of foul trouble.
Her outside complement is Heather Cassady. Cassady played point last season and averaged 11 points and four rebounds as game. Reportedly she will move to shooting guard this year to make way for transfer Kristen Bodine, who will play the point. Cassady is a career 37% shooter, so she does not seem to be the ideal shooting guard candidate.
Unfortunately for Bennett, though, 37% is average for this team. Without Chapman's 55%, the entire Hoosier team shot under 40%. That just isn't good enough for a team with first-division aspirations. Even worse, there does not appear to be a consistent three-point shooter on the roster.
The other main hole is rebounding. Chapman's foul problems limited her to 7.5 rebounds a game and her teammates only contributed 30 more. The result was that the Hoosiers were the worst rebounding team in the conference. Erin McGinnis moved from small to power forward midseason last year and her numbers went up considerably and she will need to continue to produce.
On the plus side, ths is a senior-dominated team, with Cassady, Chapman and McGinnis all being in their last year. Their experience will be invaluable. But they are all players who need to make significant improvements and that doesn't usually happen between a player's junior and senior years.
Indiana finished tied for sixth with a 9-7 record last season and lost its best individual defender and best three-point shooter. Only Bodine and freshman guard Jenny DeMuth appear to be newcomers who will contribute significantly. The team looks very similar to last season's and will likely produce similar results.
Prior to 2000-01, coach Theresa Grentz said that her team was looking at a two-year season. She felt that way because that squad had no seniors and it would be able to continue to improve and grow through March of 2002. That is solid logic. It only fails to stand up because Grentz' top two players, Allison Curtin and Anne O'Neil, transferred after the season.
If these two were the only transfers from Grentz' program, it could be looked at as bad luck. But fully 40% of the high school players Grentz has signed at Illinois have left her program early. Clearly, something is rotten in Grentzville. It's impossible to know how much that will impact the team, but the transfers leave Grentz with major holes.
Nowhere are those holes more visible than in the backcourt. Junior Shavonna Hunter returns as the starter at point. While no one will ever mistake her for Helen Darling, she was a solid performer who averaged 8.5 points and three assists a game. The shooting guard spot will have to be handled by freshmen Tiffini Guthrie and Jere Issenmann. The two will have to provide enough outside shooting to keep teams from collapsing in the post. There is no returning Illini player who could be counted on to hit a mid-range jump shot, much less a three.
The strength of the team will be its frontcourt. Sophomore small forward Aminata Yanni returns from one of those damnable ACL injuries. She is an athletic player who excels at getting to the basket. But, again, she doesn't have a jump shot and will be limited if teams collapse in the middle or play zone defenses. The post players are big and strong. Iveta Marcauskaite averaged 11.5 points and five rebounds a game in her freshman year. She preferred to come off the bench and only averaged 22 minutes a game. She will have to be on the court more and be a go-to player if Illinois is to improve. The power forward will be Cindy Dallas, she of the oft- injured knees. Dallas is a physical player who can bang with the best of them but her movement is very limited and she will struggle defensively. Holly Wilson started at center last year, but she only averaged three points and 1.5 rebounds a game. She also has a chronic foot injury and may miss the season.
Overall, this is a team without a lot of talent. Despite her hype, Grentz has not blown the Big 10 away with her coaching skills. Every team she has had at Illinois has had at least one major weakness -- and this team will be doing well to only have one weakness. It also may finish behind one of last season's bottom three.
9. Minnesota (8-20, 1-15, 10th)
In the last four years, the Gophers have won only seven of 64 Big 10 games. Of course, they were hampered by being under the misdirection of coach-impersonator Cheryl Littlejohn. But now Littlejohn is gone and Brenda Oldfield is in charge.
Oldfield inherits a team with more talent than the record would indicate. This is not a team with overwhelming talent, but there are definitely players here who are capable of helping this team improve.
The guard corps approaches being above average. Point guard Ozlem Piroglu and shooting guard Lindsey Whalen return to anchor the starting lineup. Piroglu, a member of the Turkish National Team, averaged eight points and 5.4 assists while shooting over 50% from the field. Whalen, a member of the all-freshmen team, led the team in scoring with 17 points a game and averaged four rebounds and three assists a game. She also shot 47% from the field. They'll be backed up by Lindsey Leiser, who was one of the league's top three-point shooters after hitting 38% of her long-range attempts.
The frontcourt will be hurt by an injury to Tanisha Gilbert. After starting out the season with a 15-point, seven-rebound average, Gilbert was declared academically ineligible for the second semester. She followed that up by tearing her ACL and will likely miss this season. Post player Kim Prince will bear the brunt of the frontcourt expectations.
Periglu, Whalen, Lieser and Prince are all solid Big 10 players who could play for other teams in the league. It's hard to evaluate the Gopher team stats because Littlejohn seemed to lack both an offensive and defensive system. Oldfield will start from scratch. She has said all the right things in public. She does have players on whom she can build so Minnesota will be better -- but probably not enough to make a major jump in the standings. They could well pass Illinois, and possibly Indiana, and that would be a tremendous boost for a program that was all but invisible during Littlejohn's reign.
10. Michigan State (10-18, 4-12, ninth)
Year one in the tenure of Joanne P McCallie certainly was not an unqualified success on the court. But off the court was an entirely different matter.
A season- long injury to top returnee Becky Cummings and an ACL tear for point guard Candas Jackson hurt the Spartans on the court. Without those two, freshman Julie Pagel was the only above average player on the roster. Jackson has recovered and will run the point. Pagel will again start at a post position and will likely be the Spartans' go-to player.
The only other returning player who major a significant contribution is Vnemia Reese. She took over for Jackson and averaged 10 points and 3.7 assists a game. But she shot only 37% from the field and turned the ball over three times a game. So there is not much in the way of returning talent on the Spartan roster.
That is where McCallie's off-court success comes in. McCallie has a six-player recruiting class that includes two top 100 players and a member of the Jamaican National Team. There are a lot of minutes for the newcomers and they appear to have the talent to take advantage of that time. The two freshmen with the best chance to start are 5-10 Cortne Ellis at small forward and 6-1 Joy Johnson at power forward, but all six of the newcomers will be given every chance to contribute.
Last season, McCallie recognized that she did not have much offensive talent, so she admittedly concentrated on defense. Her team responded and led the league by allowing teams to shoot only 38%. The Spartans will have more offensive weapons this year, but they are not going to win many games based on talent alone,. If they continue to play as hard as they did last year, however, they will jump up and bite a team or two.
11. Northwestern (4-23, 0-16, 11th)
In her two years at Northwestern, June Olkowski has a 3-29 Big 10 record, which appears to be more reflective of a lack of talent on the court than a lack of coaching ability. Because there is simply not much talent on the Wildcat roster, Northwestern finished at or near the bottom in every statistical category in the conference in 2000-01. And the Wildcats only return one player, Emily Butler, who has proven herself to be a legitimate Big 10 player.
Olkowski does have a good recruiting class coming in. The top player 6-4 center Sarah Kwasinski, should be one of the better freshmen in the league. Samantha McCrumb is a shooting guard who should be able to provide scoring help.
Olkowski is the league's most energetic coach and her players appear to enjoy playing for her. Her team will be better this year. Last season the Wildcats only managed to stay within 10 points of three teams and they almost have to improve. But will they improve enough to win a Big 10 game? Probably not.
Defensive Player of the Year: Tamara Moore, Wisconsin
Freshman of the Year: Tabitha Poole, Michigan
All-Big 10 Team: Stomski, Moore, Kelly Mazzante (PSU), Lindsey Meder (Iowa), Shereka Wright (Purdue)
10/23/01
