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NCAA tournament berths will be announced March 11. There remains two weeks' worth of games to be played, ankles to be turned, curfews to be missed, practices to be thrown out of and romantic breakups to be negotiated. It's really unfair to ask media members to guess at how those variables will play out on the teams that they cover and then go on record with predictions of which teams each conference will send to the NCAA tournament.
That said, here's what some of those writers and broadcasters had to say when asked to do just that.
America East -- Granted, it's tougher in some conferences than in others, but conference play is always a war. In most leagues, opponents scout, prepare for and play each other twice during the regular season. The rival coaches have recruited each others' players and know their strengths and weaknesses. The home crowds know which visiting players are hotheads who can be rattled with the right cheers. Nine teams around the country entered this weekend's games with unbeaten league marks, and Delaware was one of them. So it's no surprise that Kevin Thomas, who covers University of Maine sports for the Portland Press Herald, calls Delaware 'the obvious favorite for the automatic berth' from the America East Conference. If the Fightin' Blue Hens do, in fact, win the March 7-10 league tournament, look for the NCAA tournament committee to leave the rest of the America East at home. Thomas's top candidates for tripping up Delaware: league-tournament-host Vermont, Drexel and Maine. In the NCAA tournament: Delaware.
Atlantic Coast -- John Galinsky likes Duke. 'The Blue Devils are much more athletic than last year, thanks to their freshmen, and they have the league's best perimeter game by far,' says Virginia's beat writer for The Charlottesville Daily Progress. 'Georgia Schweitzer and Alana Beard are a terrific combo. They're a bit soft inside, and their chemistry has suffered since Beard returned from a thumb injury. But they should be able to get things straightened out by tournament time.' That's March 2-5 in Greensboro, N.C. By then, Galinsky expects one of the tournament's most talented teams to also be its most desperate. 'Assuming Carolina loses to Duke (on Feb. 26), I'd say the Tar Heels need to win the ACC tournament' for an NCAA tournament bid, he said. 'The Tar Heels have three of the conference's best offensive players (senior forward LaQuanda Barksdale, sophomore guard Coretta Brown and senior guard Juana Brown). Their mediocre record (14-12 overall, 7-8 in the league) is somewhat deceptive because they lost five ACC games by two or three points. If they can play some defense and find a way to win close games, they could be a factor.' In: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia.
Atlantic 10 -- The Associated Press distributes a Ratings Percentage Index that is produced without the NCAA's assistance but is said to duplicate the RPI used by the tournament committee in determining at-large berths. Winning percentage against Division-I opponents counts 25 percent toward a team's RPI. Its opponents' combined winning percentage against D-I foes (or, strength of schedule) counts another 50 percent. The remaining 25 percent is the schedule strength of a team's opponents. Using that calculation, Xavier and George Washington are solidly in the hunt for NCAA tournament berths. In the RPI rankings that the AP released Feb. 19, Xavier comes in at 20. George Washington is No. 24. JoAnne Harrop, who writes for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, does not expect Xavier's NCAA tournament hopes to be left up to the committee. 'The Musketeers are quietly controlling teams and have won 20-plus games the past three seasons. They lead the Atlantic 10 in points per game, scoring margin, field-goal percentage, 3-point field goals per game, assists and assist/turnover ratio,' Harrop said. 'But don't count out Temple (in the Atlantic 10 tournament, March 2-5 in Philadelphia). The Owls could steal an invitation to the Big Dance. I watched (first-year coach Dawn Staley's) team play Duquesne. Temple fell behind early, but the Owls came out hot in the second half. Even though they were much smaller than Duquesne, Temple outrebounded Duquesne and shot well in the second half. If any coach is going to instill a winning attitude, it will be Staley because she certainly understands what it takes to win.' In: George Washington and Xavier.
Big East -- The league tournament is March 3-6 in Storrs, so UConn would seem the favorite. But Nichole Gantshar of The Syracuse Newspapers expects the Huskies to see strong challenges from the quarterfinals on. 'I don't think anyone would be a surprise champion,' Gantshar said. 'This league is packed with talent. No one would steal (an NCAA tournament) berth in this league.' Gantshar believes Seton Hall is in a tussle for an invite but thinks five Big East teams have made strong cases for spots. In: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Villanova and Virginia Tech.
Big Sky -- Idaho State has qualified for only four league tournaments and has never advanced to the NCAA tourney, and yet here stand the Bengals as the clear favorite to advance from the Big Sky. 'Every time it looks like the Bengals can't stand prosperity, they pull themselves up by the bootstraps,' said Kim Briggeman, who covers Montana for the Missoulian. 'Mandi Carver is the closest thing to unstoppable the league has because she is a terror on the boards and scores consistently.' Idaho State plucked Carver, a 6-2 junior forward, out of Beaverhead County High School in Dillon, Mont. She helped her prep team to a Montana state title as a sophomore and an appearance in the state championship game as a junior, and she has been a leading contributor since she arrived in the Big Sky. Briggeman is a believer in the upstart Bengals, but, he said, 'Montana State and Montana, teams who shunned Carver in the recruiting process although she's from Montana, have one thing going for them versus Idaho State: The Bengals have swept both schools for the first time. Can they beat either or both for a third time?' Only six of the nine Big Sky teams advance to the league tournament, and no team has ever come out of the opening round and claimed the automatic berth. In: Idaho State.
Big South -- Liberty is so good, it clinched the regular-season league title on a day that it lost. High Point held on to upset the home-standing Lady Flames, 58-53, on Feb. 17, but Radford beat Elon on the same day. That clinched the top seed in the Big South tournament, Feb. 28-March 3 in Roanoke, Va., for Liberty. A fifth straight NCAA tournament appearance is at stake for the Lady Flames. Liberty got to the last four powered by three terrific scorers, guards Sarah Farley and Sharon Wilkerson and front-courter Elena Kisseleva. The Lady Flames have rekindled their postseason hopes with defense; they hold Big South foes to fewer than 54 points a game. Sophomore front-courter Michelle Fricke, at 15 a game, is the only Lady Flame with a scoring average in double figures. In one of Liberty's two league losses this year, Elon shot 60 percent from the floor in winning, 76-58, on Jan. 20. In the other, Feb. 17 against High Point, Liberty had cut a 15-point lead to seven before High Point put together a five-point play -- a three-pointer and then two free throws on a foul away from the shot -- with 3:54 to play. In: Liberty.
Big Ten -- Ricardo Cooney, who covers Michigan State for The Lansing State Journal, is unequivocal: 'Purdue, Purdue, Purdue. The rich just keep getting richer here. What other program in the conference can lose Stephanie White-McCarty and Ukari Figgs, take a year off and return to the top of the heap with two freshman, in (forwards) Shalicia Hurns and Shereka Wright? (Senior swing player) Katie Douglas is the new White-McCarty, and (senior) Camille Cooper is arguably the best center in the Big Ten. The thing that makes Purdue so great is that nobody overextends themselves or steps out of their roles. Every player that hits the floor in a Purdue uniform knows their responsibilities and sticks to them.' Cooney thinks Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin are also solid bets for the NCAA tournament, and he believes strong finishes could also deliver Indiana and Michigan. From that crowd, Cooney thinks Iowa and Penn State have the best chance to upset Purdue in the Big Ten tournament, March 1-4 in Grand Rapids, Mich. Hawkeyes coach 'Lisa Bluder, who should be Big Ten coach of the year, has her team playing phenomenal basketball, and she's done it with much of the same lineup that went 9-18 overall and finished seventh with a 6-10 mark in the Big Ten last season.' In: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin.
Big 12 -- Jenni Carlson covers one of the nation's hottest teams, Oklahoma, but the Sooners don't get The Oklahoman columnist's nod for favorites in the league tournament, March 6-10 in Kansas City, Mo. 'The Sooners might be playing better than any other team in the league right now, but they have never won a Big 12 tournament game,' Carlson said. 'I like Iowa State to win it. The Cyclones have had success in Kansas City. They thrive there.' Of course, the Sooners would still join the Cyclones in the NCAA tournament, as would Colorado, Texas and Texas Tech, Carlson believes. 'There should be no question. All of them have spent much of the season in the Top 25, separating themselves from the conference pack and playing tough non-conference schedules. Baylor has had a couple of bad losses, but the Bears should have enough victories and, more importantly, quality victories to get to the tournament.' In: Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech.
Big West -- John Zant of the Santa Barbara News-Press and Brian Milne of The Tribune in San Luis Obispo, Calif., watched UC Santa Barbara reel off 58 consecutive league victories through regular seasons and tournaments since 1998 -- and then lose two in a row this month. 'The loss of three all-league players from last year seemed to catch up with UCSB,' Zant said. The Gauchos have rebounded, but the Big West Conference is unusually in doubt. The winner of the league tournament, March 7-10 in Anaheim, will likely be the lone Big West representative in the NCAA tournament, and Zant still expects UCSB to come through. 'Based on non-conference victories over Arizona State, Virginia and Stephen F. Austin, the Gauchos still look like the best bets in a big game,' he said. 'But Pacific and Long Beach State are capable of taking the crown.' Milne sees things similarly. 'Right now, it's anyone's conference. Pacific and Long Beach State are the frontrunners (to upset UCSB), but there's seven teams that have a legitimate shot at the Big Dance,' he said. With junior point guard Odessa Jenkins and sophomore frontcourter Caroline Rowles back from injuries, 'Cal Poly is back to where they started the season when the Mustangs rattled of a school-record five straight wins. Jenkins leads the conference in steals, and, when Rowles gets the rock, she's one of the top post players in the league. If that deep Mustang squad can stay healthy, they'll be tough to beat.' In: UC Santa Barbara.
Colonial Athletic Association -- Like the Big West, the Colonial Athletic Association is proving to be not as top-heavy as in previous seasons. Old Dominion, after 113 straight league victories, lost, 49-48, at James Madison on Feb. 18. The Dukes did it once. Jennifer Williams, who covers Old Dominion for the Daily Press in Newport News, Va., admits it could happen again, but 'Old Dominion will most likely win the CAA's automatic bid because the conference tournament has moved from Richmond to ODU Fieldhouse this season, which is a site notorious for its large home crowds and intimidating atmosphere. Also, having lost a conference game will leave the Lady Monarchs hungry to prove that they still deserve to make the NCAA tournament.' In fact, in its first Colonial Athletic Association game after the James Madison loss, Old Dominion punished William & Mary by 46 points Feb. 22. 'If Old Dominion wins the CAA tournament,' Williams said, 'no other teams will be considered by the committee. This is not a year for the CAA to be expecting to get two teams into the NCAAs.' In: Old Dominion.
Conference USA -- Michael Strom of The Times Picayune in New Orleans has watched the team he covers, Tulane, win three of the first five league tournaments. 'They are well-coached by Lisa Stockton and her staff and obviously play well in these tournaments.' What's more, senior center Janell Burse and sophomore forwards Teana McKiver and Gwen Slaughter combine to average 37 points and 24 rebounds a game, and, Strom said, 'I think that presents a difficult challenge for an opposing team to prepare for in a short tournament format.' RPI suggests Tulane (No. 60 in the Feb. 19 rankings) and Louisville (No. 75), which beat the home-standing Green Wave, 64-60, on Jan. 26, are only bubble teams for the NCAA tournament, but Strom expects both to go. 'Houston (No. 63 in the RPI) is another team that merits strong consideration. But they are not a lock,' he said. The Cougars 'own a victory against Louisiana Tech, but they lost their best player (freshman guard Chandi Jones). Since the tournament committee takes into consideration injuries, that's a minus. They clearly are not the same team, and I believe they will have to win the conference tournament to advance to the NCAAs. That leaves only one other club in my opinion, and that's Alabama-Birmingham (No. 96 in the RPI). The Lady Blazers advanced to the NCAA tournament last season and reached the Sweet 16 round. Their tournament history will help them. They also have one of the top players in the country in forward Deanna Jackson, another plus. UAB would be my choice as the next-most-likely club to win the conference tournament (March 2-5 in Milwaukee) if Tulane doesn't.' In: Louisville and Tulane.
Ivy -- There's no league tournament, so Pennsylvania -- 11-0 in the Ivy League after winning, 62-57, at Harvard on Feb. 24 -- has clinched the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament. 'The Quakers have not dominated their competition ., but they have the experience and consistency necessary to win the close games,' said David R. De Remer, associate sports editor of the Harvard Crimson. 'Penn is a better team than its three-digit RPI (106 as of Feb. 19) would indicate. The Quakers are a strong team in a conference that's among the nation's weakest at the bottom. Any team that underestimates the Ivy champion will be in for a rude awakening. Dartmouth came pretty close to beating Purdue last year (70-66 in the first round of the NCAA tournament at West Lafayette, Ind.), and everyone knows what Harvard did in 1998 (won at top-seeded Stanford, 71-67, in the opening round). That Crimson team boasted a 22-4 record and had a similarly deflated RPI.' In: Penn.
Metro Atlantic Athletic -- The Saints, at last? 'Siena has been the best team in the MAAC for three of the past four years, but something always, always, always goes wrong in the conference tournament and costs it the NCAA berth,' said Tim Reynolds, who covers the league for the Times Union in Albany, N.Y. 'But now, with players like sophomore Gunta Basko and freshman Liene Jansone -- two Latvian national team-ers -- the Saints have enough firepower up front to finally win the tourney (March 1-4 in Buffalo). By the way, Basko probably will be the league's player of the year, unless being a sophomore counts against her. She's a 6-foot inside-outside threat who basically plays the four -- a really interesting story.' Fairfield has the league's best RPI (No. 42), but Reynolds thinks St. Peter's might be the top candidate to deprive Siena of its first-ever NCAA tournament berth. 'It's strange to say that the team which has won three of the last four MAAC tournaments is the dark horse to win again, but this is the "rebuilding" year for the Peahens,' he said. 'They have some big-time guards like sophomore Beth Ann Dickinson, a 6-3 immovable object inside in Leah Cromer and the MAAC's best coach in Mike Granelli. They're going to be a threat.' In: Siena.
Mid-American -- Damon Beck, the MAC women's hoops writer for The Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune in Ohio since the 1986-87 season, expects a sixth consecutive meeting in the league-tournament championship game for Kent State and Toledo. 'Both Buffalo and Ball State have taken turns during the season looking like the cream of the 13 MAC teams,' he said. 'However, Mark Ehlen at Toledo and Bob Lindsay at Kent State are the two best coaches in the league, and their teams are in a good position to battle for another shot at the NCAA berth.' Ehlen's move of freshman Mary Blessing to starting point guard preceded a winning streak. 'The Rockets have size in the low post, a MAC player-of-the-year candidate (senior Kahli Carter) at power forward, athletic wings and now good ball handling at the point,' Beck said. 'Kent has the best inside-outside combination in the league with 6-4 center Julie Studer and speedy 5-8 guard Carrie Nance (both seniors). I'll have to give the edge to Toledo, but Kent could easily be better on any given night and defend its championship.' Beck's upset candidate for the March 3-9 tournament in Cleveland is Buffalo. 'Coach Cheryl Dozier has to go almost the entire game with her starters, but they are fit and talented,' he said. 'In a single-elimination situation like the conference tournament, center Tiffany Bell, guard Mari McClure and point guard Sonia Ortega (all seniors) will be hard to beat with their careers about to end.' In: Toledo.
Mid-Continent -- Here's another one-shot league. Only the winner of the March 3-6 Mid-Continent tournament in Fort Wayne, Ind., is likely to advance to the NCAA tournament. 'Oral Roberts has the best shot,' said Charles Robinson of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich. 'Oakland has the three big stars to make it interesting, but they've had some recent offensive troubles at a time when they should be hitting their stride. Great defense has consistently beaten good offense in the Mid-Con, so the edge goes to ORU.' A candidate for a surprise run? 'You can bet nobody is looking forward to playing Western Illinois, a team that has been pretty balanced this season and has always seemed to come up with gritty performances against the conference leaders,' Robinson said. 'They've got a good inside mix, too. If they shoot well in the first 20 minutes, watch out.' In: Oral Roberts.
Mid-Eastern Athletic -- First-year coach Cathy Parson has Howard vying for a return to the NCAA tournament after a two-year absence. 'Double-digit victories have the been the trademark of the Lady Bison,' said Thomas Grant, a senior sports writer who covers South Carolina State for the Times and Democrat in Orangeburg, S.C. 'That is, except against a much-improved South Carolina State team that defeated them, 107-104, in overtime in January in the two teams' lone meeting. SCSU is one of the conference's top defensive teams and has shown a knack for winning the close games all season. They also have a head coach in Keisha Campbell who knows about winning the MEAC tournament. (As a player) she led the Lady Bulldogs to MEAC regular-season titles in 1991 and 1992 and was the player of the year in 1991.' Other factors in the March 5-10 league tournament figure to be Delaware State and Hampton. In: Howard.
Midwestern Collegiate -- Dan Manoyan of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wasn't swayed by Wisconsin-Green Bay's 72-66 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Feb. 17. He still expects the Phoenix to win the league tournament March 8-10 in Chicago. 'Green Bay was without its best player, (junior forward) Mandy Stowe, who has an intestinal disorder. Also, her backup, (sophomore) Chandra Johnson, isn't 100 percent because of a lower leg injury,' Manoyan said. 'Both are expected to be ready for the MCC tournament. Smart money's on GB. When they're healthy, nobody in the league can touch them.' But if somebody does, Manoyan said, it'll probably be Wisconsin-Milwaukee. 'The Panthers have never been to the dance and would probably be a 16 seed if they got in, but they have the quickness and athleticism to give Green Bay all it can handle.' In: Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Missouri Valley -- Terry Waggoner is afraid that his WUEV listeners back in Evansville, Ind., will not be very happy with what they hear when he broadcasts the Purple Aces' games from the Missouri Valley Conference tournament March 8-10 in Springfield, Mo. 'The clear favorite is Southwest Missouri State,' Waggoner said. 'They've got the nation's leading scorer in (senior guard) Jackie Stiles, who really can't be stopped. They also will host the conference tournament in the Hammons Center, the hardest place to play in the Valley. They will draw 9,000 fans for the tournament, and they will be loud.' He doesn't expect an upset, but 'you can never count out Northern Iowa. They are third in the conference and just have a great starting five. Everyone in a UNI uniform can put up points in a big way, and they play as a team every time out. They can beat anybody' and, in fact, did win at home against Southwest Missouri State, 99-80, on Feb. 18. As for at-large berths, Waggoner likes Drake's chances: 'Though their RPI is in the mid 60s (No. 62 as of Feb. 19), I feel like the selection committee will respect the fact that they only have one loss in the conference regular season. They're a very good team, with a lot of quality leadership, and a great coaching staff.' In: Drake and Southwest Missouri State.
Mountain West -- If Utah can win on the road in the conference tournament, it will likely be playing at home for the first two rounds of the league tournament. The Utes were ranked eighth in the Feb. 19 RPI and, after winning 67-55 at Brigham Young on Feb. 23, take almost a week off to enjoy their 23-2 overall and 12-0 Mountain West marks before closing the regular season with two games at home. The league tournament is March 7-10 in Las Vegas. 'They have proven they can win on the road,' said Renee Carlson of The Fort Collins Coloradoan. 'Victories at New Mexico (in front of nearly 17,000 at The Pit) and at Colorado State University are tough to come by, but Utah already has them under its belt. Utah, for the first time in school history, should be chosen as one of 16 schools to host first- and second-round games. That will greatly improve Utah's chances for improving their 1-6 recent record in postseason play. If they get to host, the Utes will get a chance to show the nation they belong in the Sweet 16.' Mike Sorensen of the Deseret News in Utah is similarly impressed: 'The Utes have another well-balanced team with only one player, junior center Lauren Beckman, averaging in double figures (12 points a game). Senior forward Amy Ewert is the top defender for the top-ranked defensive team in women's basketball.' Candidates for at-large berths include Colorado State (No. 27 in the RPI), Brigham Young (68) and Nevada-Las Vegas (79). 'I think BYU should get into the NCAA, but I don't know if it will. The Cougars are playing good basketball, winning five of their last seven games after starting off a bit rocky,' Carlson said. 'UNLV also has an outside chance, especially because the Rebels could advance further into the MWC tournament since it's played in their arena. The Rebels don't play up to their athletic potential but have a legitimate All-American candidate in junior forward Linda Fršhlich.' In: Colorado State and Utah.
Northeast -- It looks like Mount St. Mary's, but Peter Zellen of the Carroll County Times in Maryland has heard that one before. 'This team has been bounced in the semifinals the last two years after going in as favorites. Some say it's because they're physically exhausted after a season of hard practice; others, because they weren't used to winning. This should be the Mount's year, though. Two freshmen will help energize this team come the tournament (March 3-5 in Trenton, N.J.) -- point guard Adrienne Harris, who at 5-4 is just as likely to go inside as shoot outside, and center Beth Foster, who is coming off a hip injury that sidelined her for nine games.' Zellen added, 'Look for Quinnipiac as a surprise team. They've got energy and a good attitude and would make a perfect Cinderalla team after their recent upgrade to Division I. Sacred Heart could also advance because of their depth.' In: Mount St. Mary's.
Ohio Valley -- The league tournament starts Feb. 27 on the home courts of the four high seeds and finishes March 3 and 4 in Nashville. It's not quite a slam dunk for Tennessee Tech, postseason participant in 21 of the last 29 years, but it's close. 'One team to watch is Eastern Kentucky, which plays an aggressive defense and applies full-court pressure most of the game. Austin Peay, which returned all of its key players from last year's team, could make another run like last year when it reached the title game before losing to Tech,' said Dave Link, who covers Ohio Valley Conference basketball for the Clarksville Leaf-Chronicle in Tennessee. 'Still, Tech has the most talented team in the league and a loss in the tournament would be a huge upset. The Golden Eaglettes have the best player in the OVC in junior forward/post Janet Holt, plus an outstanding backcourt, good perimeter shooters and a veteran coach in Bill Worrell.' The Golden Eaglettes are pursuing a third consecutive NCAA tournament berth. In: Tennessee Tech.
Pac-10 -- 'The overall state of the league is not good, and the fact that Arizona State is the only ranked team in the Pac-10 should say more than enough about that,' said Ed Guzman, who covers women's basketball for The Oregonian. 'Every other team has hit some sort of surprising bump. Arizona fell on hard times in late January, Oregon lost seven of eight at one point to fall to sixth, and even an old reliable like Stanford -- after winning seven in a row to get back in the race -- lost at home to California last week.' Arizona State, winner of 10 of its last 11 games, is primed for its first NCAA tournament berth since 1992. So who joins them from the Pac-10? 'The selection committee has taken between three and five schools in the past,' Guzman said. 'Don't count on it being five this year.' His favorites for at-large berths: Washington ('a fragile team, with injuries to a lot of their post players'), Stanford ('remember, they are doing this with a forward, Nicole Powell, playing point guard because of season-ending injuries to their top two point guards') and Arizona. Oregon has been to the last seven NCAA tournaments, but, Guzman said, 'Oregon is in deep trouble. I did a story this week on their recent slide, and (senior frontcourter) Angelina Wolvert kept saying how their name will get them in. It sounds like wishful thinking to me.' In: Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford and Washington.
Patriot -- The league tournament starts March 2 and 3 at Navy in Annapolis, Md.; the higher-seeded finalist hosts the March 7 championship. Holy Cross will enter with the top seed and a first-round bye, but this will be no walk for the favorite. The Crusaders' semifinals opponent will be either Army, which beat Holy Cross by 16 on Feb. 24, or home-standing Navy, which lost to Holy Cross on a three-pointer at the overtime buzzer Feb. 14. Get by that game, and Holy Cross recoils to home for the championship. The Crusaders have won 53 consecutive Patriot League games in Worcester, Mass., but that final opponent figures to be either Bucknell or Lehigh -- teams that have played Holy Cross to three and two points, respectively, this season. Don Bostrom of The Morning Call in Allentown, Pa., feels Bucknell has the Patriot League's most talented starting five, and Lehigh, its top player in sophomore forward/center Anne Tierney. What's all of this mean? 'It's too close to call,' Bostrom said. 'All the coaches agree if they don't get Holy Cross this year they never will because their full scholarships are kicking in. Next year, Holy Cross has lined up two of the top 100 (prospects), which is huge for the so-called "Last Amateurs" of the Patriot League.' In: Holy Cross.
Southeastern -- The Feb. 19 RPI includes nine SEC teams in its top 64: Tennessee, at No. 1; Georgia, 3; Florida, 15; Louisiana State, 16; Vanderbilt, 23; Arkansas, 30; Alabama, 45; Mississippi, 54, and Mississippi State, 57. Even the 10th SEC team in the RPI rankings, No. 71 Auburn, would have to be considered a bubble team at least. The Tigers enter today's regular-season finale against Tennessee with a 17-10 overall record, non-conference wins over Alabama-Birmingham and Arizona and three wins in their last four outings in a killer conference. Of course, there's always the automatic berth, at stake in the league tournament March 1-4 in Memphis. But Andy Burcham -- sports director for Tiger Communications, Inc., the host of a drive-time talk show on WQNR FM and WAUD AM in Auburn and, for 13 years, 'Voice of Auburn Women's Basketball' -- thinks the home team better make other plans. 'Tennessee will win the SEC tournament,' Burcham said. 'Vanderbilt could be a surprise because of its inside play. (Sophomore center) Chantelle Anderson is shooting 74 percent from the field, and (sophomore point guard) Ashley McElhiney leads the league in assists. I don't think you could classify Georgia as a surprise winner of the league tournament.' In: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Southern -- A word of caution from Mike Anderson of The Davidsonian: 'Anything can happen in the Southern Conference. Just two years ago, the championship game was played between the No. 4 and 6 seeds.' UT-Chattanooga is Anderson's favorite in the league tournament March 1-4 in Greenville, S.C., but UNC-Greensboro is 'equipped to make a legitimate swipe. They have, in my opinion, the best coach in the Southern Conference in Lynne Agee, as well as a host of talent that plays well together. They've got nine different players averaging at least 12 minutes a game, and depth is important when you've got to win three straight hard-fought tournament games.' David Jenkins of The Chattanooga Times & Free Press, differs on his picks for top upset threats. 'Furman is only the fourth seed but defeated UTC in Greenville and played the Lady Mocs within six in Chattanooga, (and) Georgia Southern winning would not surprise me,' he said. But, like Anderson, Jenkins expects the Lady Mocs to prevail. 'I like Chattanooga,' he said, 'only because (junior forward) Damita Bullock finally began playing at a level worthy of her preseason-player-of-the-year designation.' In: UT-Chattanooga.
Southland -- Remember Lamar? Back in 1991, the Lady Cardinals of Beaumont, Texas, finished 29-4, made the round of eight in the NCAA tournament and lost to Virginia in a regional final before Dawn Staley and the Cavs turned back upstart Connecticut in the Final Four and then bowed to Tennessee in overtime in the national final. That year, Lamar upset homestanding Texas in the first round and visiting Louisiana State in the second. LSU was the higher seed but couldn't host the game because Sesame Street Live was already scheduled to perform that Sunday afternoon in the Lady Tigers' gym. Lamar pounded LSU by 20 and beat Arkansas by 16 in a Midwest Regional semi before falling to Virginia. For the Lady Cardinals, that was NCAA sanctions, three coaches and seven losing seasons in nine years ago. But Kenton Brooks, who has covered the team for the Beaumont Enterprise off and on for about 15 seasons, is seeing a bit of a resurgence under DeAnn Craft, the former Richmond Rage assistant coach who has led Lamar to nine, 10 and now 11 wins and counting in her three seasons. 'We're starting to see a little bit of a turn,' Brooks said, 'but it's going to take another good recruiting class or two to get the program back on track to where it was.' Shawnta Vanzant, a 5-6 senior guard, averages 19 points a game in her first and last season as a Lady Cardinal after transferring from Penn State. She makes Lamar dangerous but hardly a favorite in the Southland Conference tournament March 6-10 in Shreveport, La. Will anyone beat perennial-power Stephen F. Austin? 'No,' Brooks said. 'The conference is not very strong in the first place, and Stephen F. Austin has that tradition.' The Ladyjacks are first place in the Southland, with an 18-0 league mark. Road dates with third-place Northwestern State on March 1 and second-place Louisiana-Monroe on March 3 precede the league tournament. In: Stephen F. Austin.
Southwestern Athletic -- In each of its last two games, first-place Alcorn State has turned back the SWAC's top challenger du jour. On Feb. 19, the Lady Braves won, 83-68, at home against Alabama State, the league's second-place team at tip-off. Alcorn bottomed 33 of 36 free throws, almost 92 percent, in the game, and senior forward Cherea Wood hit all 12 of her free-throw attempts and finished with 26 points, nine rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots. Five days later, Alcorn State edged the new second-place team, Southern, in the Lady Jaguars' last home game of the season, 58-56. Alabama State and Southern are teams on the rise, and Grambling State is forever a factor. But Alcorn State is one tough out. The Lady Braves have a bunch of seniors, one big star and a bead on a second straight trip to the NCAA tournament. In: Alcorn State.
Sun Belt -- Of course, Louisiana Tech is a lock for a 20th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, even if someone else somehow wins the league tournament March 1-6 in Mobile, Ala. So let's move on. Billy Morgan, who calls Arkansas State games over the Indian Sports Network, said Denver 'definitely deserves consideration. The Pioneers' RPI is strong enough (No. 38, as of Feb. 19), and they are champions of the Western Division in the conference.' RPI (No. 52) won't help Florida International's chances, but Morgan is impressed with the Golden Panthers -- 'maybe one of the most underrated teams in the country. Junior swing player Gergana Slavtcheva has been named Sun Belt Conference player of the week on three different occasions this season and is a strong candidate for player of the year in the league.' This league tournament figures to be a lot more interesting in 2002; Louisiana Tech joins the Western Athletic Conference next season. In: Denver and Louisiana Tech.
Trans America Athletic -- Campbell -- the defending champion, preseason favorite and regular season leader -- is the team to beat. 'It has probably the best inside game in the league,' said Al Muskewitz, who covers Jacksonville State sports for The Anniston Star in Alabama. 'Georgia State would be their biggest competition. It just recently snapped Campbell's 20-game TAAC winning streak.' But that game was at Georgia State; the league tournament is March 7-10 in Orlando, Fla. 'On a neutral floor, it's probably Campbell's to win,' Muskewitz said. 'If there's a sleeper, it's likely Stetson. They have the newcomer of the year (junior Kaisa Tuure) and one of the better guards (senior Cher Dyson). Still, Campbell and GSU are probably too strong.' In: Campbell.
West Coast -- Talk around the league is of getting at least three teams into the NCAA tournament, and the RPIs back up the chatter. In the Feb. 19 rankings, Loyola Marymount, Saint Mary's, Santa Clara and Pepperdine ranged from No. 39 through 59. 'The West Coast Conference is really as competitive and as strong as anyone's seen it,' said Michelle Smith, who covers women's basketball for The San Francisco Chronicle. 'It's the first time that RPIs have actually gone up after conference play started.' Saint Mary's will enter the March 1-4 league tournament in San Diego as top seed, but Smith doesn't have a strong feeling that one of the upper-half teams is a favorite. 'I'd be shocked, though, if anyone but one of those four wins the tournament,' she said. In: Loyola Marymount, Saint Mary's and Santa Clara.
Western Athletic -- Talk about uncharted territory. Texas Christian is 1-11 all-time in conference-tournament action. The Horned Frogs have never been to the NCAA tournament, but Rana Cash of the Dallas Morning News feels that's about to change -- even if their league-tournament futility continues. 'They have really turned their program around tremendously and have done so without a lot of exceptional talent,' she said. 'Coach Jeff Mittie has done a terrific job.' Hawai'i, a more frequent postseason participant, is TCU's biggest threat in the league tournament (March 6-10 in Tulsa, Okla.) and, with an RPI of 49 in the Feb. 19 release, would figure to be under consideration for an at-large berth, anyway. In: Hawai'i and Texas Christian.
And so, the 'in' crowd:
2/25/01
