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March Madness is the time of year when all of the bubble teams hope wrong winners don't spoil Selection Sunday.
Say what?
The two-week period we are now amid -- the two weeks encompassing the 29 conference tournaments and stretch runs of the Ivy League and Pac-10 -- has its own lexicon of goofy jargon. Geek code. I love this stuff.
Draw whatever conclusions you will.
Anyway, the bubble teams are the 18-11 crowd. They're the ones who'll be the most antsy when the NCAA-tournament selections are announced March 12. They're the ones who've already heard from the WNIT organizers, just in case. And they're the ones who most vehemently root against wrong winners -- lower-echelon teams that get hot in their league tourneys, steal automatic berths from regular-season champs and force the NCAA tournament committee to take both from their conferences.
Clemson and Michigan State are bubble teams; Massachusetts and Denver would be wrong winners.
I have this friend, Stephen, who annually tires of this babble. He's a huge college-hoops fan, but he doesn't understand all of the hand wringing over teams that wouldn't advance to the Final Four anyway.
So I didn't talk to Stephen for this story. I did talk to a bunch of other people, though, and here, by conference, is what we came up with for the field of 64.
America East -- Three factors lead Andy Gardiner to believe that the team he covers for The Burlington Free Press is going to win the league title and an automatic berth to the NCAA tournament: One, next weekend's tournament will be played at Vermont's Patrick Gymnasium, where the Catamounts have lost only once this season; two, Vermont has a balanced offense with four starters averaging double-figure point totals per game, and, three, Karalyn Church. The senior swing player is averaging 20 points, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals a game; she is the nation's best field-goal shooter, at 65 percent. If the Catamounts prevail, Gardiner thinks the NCAA-tournament committee will take a pass on the rest of the America East. 'Maine has gotten a lot of mileage out of an overtime loss to Georgia. But the Bears have nine losses, and the only quality win at this point is Rice,' he said. 'It would be a stretch for them to repeat their at-large berth of a year ago.' In: Vermont.
Atlantic Coast -- Duke, North Carolina State and Virginia appear to be locks for the NCAA tournament, and none of them is John Galinsky's favorite for the league-tournament title. 'I think North Carolina, the fifth seed, will win it for two reasons,' said Virginia's beat writer for The Charlottesville Daily Progress. 'First, the Tar Heels are the most talented team in the league with (junior point guard) Nikki Teasley, who missed nearly half the ACC schedule on a personal leave of absence. Second, they probably need to reach the semis or final to get an NCAA bid, so they may play with more urgency.' The tournament's fiercest game might come in the March 4 quarterfinals: UNC and fourth-seeded Clemson. The loser, a good team either way, is likely snubbed. In: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Virginia.
Atlantic 10 -- The league tournament in Philadelphia figures to get interesting March 5, in the semifinals. If the seeds hold up, Xavier will face home-standing St. Joseph's and George Washington will get Massachusetts. Xavier and St. Joseph's are likely both headed to the NCAA tournament, regardless of how they fare in Philly, but coaches Melanie Balcomb and Stephanie Gaitley will do their best to convince their teams otherwise. Xavier is the league's top offensive team; St. Joe's, its best defensive squad. The Hawks won at Xavier, 69-67, on Jan. 6. As for the other matchup, you'd figure UMass to be vulnerable against Virginia Tech in the quarters, but the Hokies recently lost high-scoring junior forward Tere Williams to injury. And you'd figure the Minutewomen, in the 140s of the current RPI, to be quick work for George Washington, in the top 25, but the Colonials lost at UMass, 67-54, on Feb. 17. The committee never takes more than three from the A-10, right? In: George Washington, Massachusetts, St. Joseph's and Xavier.
Big East -- Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Rutgers are headed to the NCAA tournament, making this only the second time that the committee will have taken as many as four Big East squads. But a fifth? Villanova upset Rutgers, 66-65, in Piscataway, N.J., on Jan. 15 and would get the Scarlet Knights in the second round of the league tournament if it doesn't trip over Providence in the first. But, come on, the tournament is in Storrs, Conn., and the Huskies 'are in a league by themselves, I think,' said Forrest Miller of The South Bend Tribune in Indiana. No wrong winner here. In: Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Rutgers.
Big Sky -- The league tournament appears headed for Montana's home court, and, if that happens, 'that virtually means Montana would have a lock on the tournament title,' said Nikki Judovsky, who covers the team for the Missoulian. 'The Lady Griz rank among the best in Division I attendance and have not lost a league contest at home this year.' There remains a slight chance of a three-way tie for the regular-season championship, which would result in Weber State hosting. That would open the door for the Wildcats, who won at home, 65-60, in overtime against Montana on Jan. 15 and challenged in Missoula, 69-56, on Feb. 9. Nonetheless, Judovsky said, 'UM has the most talented starting lineup and the best bench, and junior forward Lauren Cooper causes matchup problems for every team. At 6-foot, she has the skills to play both inside and out.' In: Montana.
Big South -- 'Liberty has proved, by its second-half conference schedule, that they are head and shoulders above the field in this tournament,' said Kurt Culbert, who covers the Lady Flames for The News & Advance in Lynchburg, Va. 'After overcoming two slips, one to Elon and the other at Radford, Liberty just walked through the conference. The final win, a clobbering of Radford at home Feb. 26, was a testament to how far the team has come.' Liberty's vulnerability: rebounding. The Lady Flames outrebounded Big South foes by an unusually slim margin (4.0 on average) for such a dominant team (12-2 in the league). In the tournament, 'the only way Liberty can get beat is if they get outrebounded by 20,' Culbert said. 'They will likely get outrebounded, but it will take that many more to make an impact.' The Lady Flames beat High Point, 67-49, in the opening round Thursday in Asheville, N.C. In: Liberty.
Big Ten -- The league tournament started Thursday in Indianapolis. Ricardo Cooney, who covers Michigan State for The Lansing State Journal, rated the quarterfinalists. On top-seeded Penn State: 'Although (senior guard Helen) Darling and (senior center Andrea) Garner are the most noticeable, don't be fooled. The emergence of (junior forward) Maren Walseth is why this team is where it is. She's the X-factor. One bad game for her, and the Lady Lions could be out.' On No. 2 Michigan: Junior guard Anne 'Thorius can't go in the tank. She must be around the 10-12 area -- that is, 10 points and 12 assists or vice versa -- for the duration of the tourney.' On No. 3 Purdue: 'If you can shut down (junior swing player Katie) Douglas, (sophomore guard Kelly) Komara or (junior center Camille) Cooper, you have a chance.' On No. 4 Illinois: Senior forward Tauja 'Catchings, (senior forward Susan) Blauser and (sophomore guard Allison) Curtin are as good as any trio in the conference. The Illini's downfall is depth.' On No. 5 Michigan State: The Spartans must have 'little or no turnovers and good support from the bench. Without those, Illinois will send them home early.' On No. 6 Wisconsin: 'Should have the horses with (sophomore forward Jessie) Stomski and (junior swing player LaTonya) Sims to match up with the Boilermakers.' On No. 9 Ohio State: 'Great defense, decent scoring -- you must be patient, or they will beat you.' On No. 10 Northwestern: 'No chance.' In: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State and Purdue.
Big 12 -- Over the last four years, the committee has taken as many as seven from this league (in 1996), as few as four (in '98). The Big 12 might be deep enough to approach the high-water mark again this season, but Andrew Gilman, who covers the league for The Oklahoman in Oklahoma City, expects five to go: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas ('not very good, honestly') and either Nebraska or Texas. 'Nebraska could be a dangerous team to play because, going into the Big 12 tournament, they're in a desperate phase -- probably need one or two wins at least,' he said. 'But I also like Texas. People who can create their own shots are especially valuable in women's basketball, and Texas has three or four of them.' The tournament is next weekend in Kansas City, Mo. In: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech.
Big West -- The next three best teams in the conference -- Long Beach State, Nevada and North Texas -- each check in at between 80 and 130 in the RPI rankings. So someone has to get by UC Santa Barbara next weekend in Reno, Nev., if the Big West is to send more than one team to the NCAA tournament. Pacific and LBS gave the Gauchos their closest tussles in the league this year; both played UCSB to 10 points on their home courts in mid February. In: UC Santa Barbara.
Colonial Athletic Association -- Big West East. Old Dominion has won 98 consecutive CAA games, and the league tournament will be played next weekend in Richmond, Va. -- about 95 miles from the school in Norfolk. The slimmest of upset hopes belong to East Carolina, probably. The 83-79 game of it ECU gave visiting Old Dominion back on Jan. 9 was the biggest news of the CAA season. In it, Lady Pirates senior forward Danielle Melvin and senior swing player Cecilia Shinn combined for 50 points, and ECU committed just 12 turnovers. In the Feb. 20 rematch in Norfolk, Melvin and Shinn combined for 11 points, and the Lady Pirates were tagged with 27 turnovers. Nonetheless, ECU outrebounded Old Dominion and the 16-point margin, 74-58, still constituted a league nail-biter for the Lady Monarchs. In: Old Dominion.
Conference USA -- Marquette and Tulane won the American and National divisions, respectively. Kent Sommerfeld, who does play-by-play for Golden Eagles games on the Marquette Radio Network, thinks DePaul, Memphis and home-standing Louisville could also be troublesome draws in the league tournament this weekend. 'DePaul, especially, is someone you've got to look out for. They've got a strong inside-outside game,' he said. 'They can definitely hit the threes. They hit 10 of 14 against Marquette last week (in an 89-71 Blue Demons win Feb. 26). And (sophomore forward) Lenae Williams is one of those players who can just come alive and carry you in a tournament.' In: DePaul, Marquette and Tulane.
Ivy -- David Mordkoff, who writes for the Daily Princetonian, is a fan of the no-tournament scenario upheld by the Ivy League and the Pac-10. A 'conference tournament renders the regular season moot,' he said. 'The league berth should go to the team that played well all season, not the one that goes on a tear for three days in March.' Dartmouth has a date with one of its closest pursuers, Harvard, remaining on the schedule, but Mordkoff likes the Big Green to hold on and advance. In fact, if its 'guards are hitting from the outside, Dartmouth could easily pull an upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament.' In: Dartmouth.
Metro Atlantic Athletic -- Siena hosts the tournament which began Thursday. 'Fairfield won the regular season and comes in here on a five-game winning streak, but I think the best bet this weekend is St. Peter's, which has won three MAAC titles in Albany (N.Y.) over the years,' said Tim Reynolds, who covers the league for the Times Union in Albany. 'St. Peter's has the inside-outside game that can rival Fairfield, plus the experience of being the reigning tournament champs, while Fairfield was just a sub-.500 team a year ago.' Reynolds will also keep an eye on the home team, Siena, which has 'a lot of freshmen who never seem to get nervous.' In: St. Peter's.
Mid-American -- Division champs Kent and Western Michigan won their semifinal games today and appear headed for the tournament final March 4 in Cleveland. 'I'm a big believer in building a winning program one step at a time,' said Damon Beck, who has covered MAC women's hoops for The Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune in Ohio since the 1986-87 season. 'Seldom do you see a team become a championship squad in one or even two seasons. First you have to get the players, then you have to learn to win, and then you learn to win the big ones. The Kent players and coaches have been here before, while the Western players haven't.' Beck is also intrigued with Eastern Michigan, just 8-8 in the league during the regular season and an 88-51 winner over Miami today. The Eagles 'beat up on Western Michigan (93-65) on the final day of the season and also won big (91-54) over third-seeded Toledo in the last week of the MAC schedule. They have a coach, Suzy Merchant, who commands the respect of her team, but, at 30 years old, can still seem to relate to the kids on their level. Eastern could surprise a top seed in the tournament, but getting the best of Kent and Western Michigan on successive days might be a stretch.' In: Kent.
Mid-Continent -- The exception to Beck's one-step-at-a-time rule might be Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies held a one-game lead on Youngstown State heading into last week. Both teams had games with Missouri-Kansas City and Oral Roberts to close out the regular season. So, with the Penguins -- Mid-Continent champs for five years running -- on their tail, would the Golden Grizzlies -- in their second Division I season -- blink? Youngstown did its job, beating both Missouri-Kansas City and ORU. But so did Oakland, by 37 and 19 points, and so coach Beckie Francis's upstart Golden Grizzlies head to Fort Wayne, Ind., this weekend as the league tournament's top seed. Oakland's first big test figures to come in the semifinals. Valparaiso looms, and the Crusaders took Oakland to two overtimes before succumbing, 83-77, on Feb. 2. In: Oakland.
Mid-Eastern Athletic -- The conference tournament is next week in Richmond, Va. Heading in, Howard has won seven straight MEAC games, including victories over Norfolk State and Morgan State which avenged the Bison's only league losses of the season. 'Norfolk State and Morgan State are pretty good. I thought Hampton could present some problems, but they've been very beatable lately,' said Dan Ryan, who writes about Bethune-Cookman sports for The Daytona Beach Journal and www.LetsGoWildcats.com. 'But it's Howard's tournament to win or lose.' In: Howard.
Midwestern Collegiate -- Wisconsin-Green Bay plays the conference's best defense, and that's good enough for Pat McKee of The Indianapolis Star. UWGB is McKee's favorite in the league tournament at Detroit next weekend. 'Before the season, I thought Cleveland State might be the league's best team because it was the conference tournament runnerup last year and returned most of its players,' McKee said. 'But while the Vikings lead the conference in scoring and have Audra Cook (a senior forward who averages 19 points a game) and Mahogany Green (a junior forward who averages 17), the league's only two players with scoring averages above 14, their defense is not good and they are next to last in the conference in rebound margin.' In: Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Missouri Valley -- The league 'is lobbying for three to get in,' said John Shipley of the Des Moines Register, 'and I think you can make a good case for three.' A year ago, though, Drake entered the MVC tournament with an 18-8 record, exited with a first-round loss to Creighton and slipped to the WNIT field while Southwest Missouri State and surprise-champ Evansville advanced to the NCAA. 'If Drake or Southwest Missouri State loses early this year, it could be a problem again,' Shipley said. He doesn't see it happening, though. Shipley expects the tournament champ to come from among Drake ('a terrific team, I think'), Evansville (the league's hottest team), Southwest Missouri (playing at home next weekend) or Wichita State. If anyone else makes a run, 'I'd be shocked.'In: Drake, Evansville and Southwest Missouri State.
Mountain West -- Colorado State split with Utah during the regular season, and New Mexico and Brigham Young are good enough to win the tournament. But Mike Sorensen of the Deseret News likes the Utes. 'They seem to have the best depth and the best defense, one of the best in the country,' he said. 'Often, defense is a bigger factor in league tournaments when teams don't play as wide open.' The tournament is next week in Las Vegas, but the winner will not receive an automatic berth to the NCAA tournament. Still, the committee figures to look kindly on Colorado State and Utah, both in the RPI's top 50 and on the fringes of The Associated Press poll, especially if the two advance to the March 11 Mountain West final. In: Colorado State and Utah.
Northeast -- St. Francis (Pa.) and Mount St. Mary's are the top two seeds, but the league's hottest team is fourth-seeded Long Island. Certainly, the Blackbirds' Kim Mac Millan is its hottest player. A freshman guard, Mac Millan has averaged 25 points and six rebounds -- she's only 5-7 -- a game during the current, four-game win streak. In the last three games, Mac Millan has scored 54 of her 69 combined points in the second halves of wins over Monmouth, St. Francis and Robert Morris. Mac Millan hails from Toms River, N.J., about 50 miles east of Trenton, site of this weekend's Northeast tournament. In: Long Island.
Ohio Valley -- Tennessee Tech let two get away down the regular-season stretch but had already clinched the OVC crown by opening with 13 straight league wins. 'The losses to Tennessee-Martin and Middle Tennessee State in the last five games had some people wondering if Tech would be vulnerable in the OVC tournament,' said Buddy Pearson, the new sports editor at the Cookeville Herald-Citizen in Tennessee. A 20-point trumping of Eastern Illinois in the Feb. 29 first round reinforced Tech's status as favorite. Of the other three teams who will play in the March 4 semifinals, Pearson said to be wary of MTSU, the league's hottest team with 10 straight wins. 'The Lady Blue Raiders were the 1998 OVC tournament champs and have six OVC tournament titles since 1982,' Pearson said. 'They are always a favorite when tourney time rolls around.' In: Tennessee Tech.
Pac-10 -- Remember: no league tournament. 'I've had to alter my thinking every week because there have been so many upsets, but right now I believe the winner of the Stanford-Arizona game on March 9 will win the conference title,' said Edward de la Fuente, the Wildcats' beat writer for the Arizona Daily Star. 'And I don't see Stanford losing at home.' Either way, he sees both of those teams headed to the NCAA tournament, along with Oregon and UCLA. 'A few of the coaches believe the conference deserves five teams and lament the lack of respect the Pac-10 gets nationally, but I cannot see a fifth team getting a bid. The choices are Arizona State and Oregon State, and both have records too close to .500 to merit consideration.' In: Arizona, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA.
Patriot -- The league tournament gets rolling March 3 at Lafayette, with the final to be played March 8 on the home court of the higher-seeded participant. Don Bostrom of The Morning Call in Allentown, Pa.: 'Bucknell beats Navy, Colgate tops Army and Lehigh beats Lafayette in the quarters. Bucknell beats Colgate, and Holy Cross tops Lehigh in the semis. Holy Cross wins its 47th straight Patriot League game at the Hart Center in the final.' Bostrom, who covers Lafayette and Lehigh, sees Lehigh as an upset candidate. 'The Mountain Hawks won the title four years ago, and the senior class has found a sense of urgency after some major underachieving most of the last two years.' In: Holy Cross.
Southeastern -- RPI has all 12 SEC teams in the country's top 100, and all but South Carolina and Mississippi are in the top 45. Take 10? Well, no, but the committee would probably take Auburn, Georgia, Louisiana State, Mississippi State and Tennessee even if those five elected to take in Ruby Falls and Rock City this weekend instead of competing in the league tournament in Chattanooga, Tenn. 'Vanderbilt should be in with its good strength-of-schedule rating and overall record, while Florida also appears to be in good shape,' said Marc Lancaster, Georgia's women's basketball beat writer for the Athens Daily News. 'That would give the SEC seven bids, one less than last year's record total.' That would also leave out Kentucky, a pretty good team that won its first-round game Thursday, 67-63, over Alabama. Lancaster lists Georgia and Tennessee as his co-favorites for the SEC-tournament crown, but he's an LSU fan, too. 'The only problem for the Lady Tigers is, to get to the title game, they'll most likely have to beat Tennessee,' he said. 'The Lady Vols whipped LSU twice during the regular season, winning by 36 and 32 points, but LSU might have gotten all of the ugliness out of its system in those losses. Also keep in mind that the Lady Tigers gave Georgia its only SEC loss of the year, back in December.' In: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Southern -- Furman is playing at home for the league tournament which started Thursday, and the Lady Paladins recently upset top-seeded Tennessee-Chattanooga. But David Jenkins, who covers UTC for The Chattanooga Times & Free Press, looks for the Lady Mocs to prevail: 'UTC's nature has been to play better away from home, so I expect them to claim the conference championship without so much as a single-digit margin of victory. That's assuming everyone stays healthy.' If so, Jenkins sees UTC going to the NCAA tournament as a 13 or 14 seed. 'But if any other team from Furman on down wins the tournament, the Lady Mocs are likely out and the SoCon will have a probable 16, no better than a 15.' In: Tennessee-Chattanooga.
Southland -- Russ Goodall covers Stephen F. Austin for The Daily Sentinel in Nacogdoches, Texas, and he likes what he sees -- despite the Ladyjacks' loss at Louisiana-Monroe on Feb. 26. 'The Ladyjacks had just beaten their rival, Northwestern State, in Natchitoches, La., by 19,' he said. 'The following game has traditionally been a letdown for the Ladyjacks, and this year was no different.' At the time of the loss, Stephen F. Austin was carrying the nation's longest win streak, a school-record 19 games, including 16 in Southland play. 'The only other losses they have were to Georgia and Oklahoma,' Goodall said. 'They are, by far, the best team in this conference.' Second-best is Northwestern State, but Goodall thinks Southwest Texas State might have the better chance to upset the Ladyjacks in next week's league tournament. 'They took SFA to overtime in Nacogdoches before losing, and they beat Northwestern State by 19. That proves that they are well-coached (by Suzanne Fox) and have what it takes to knock off the two big heavyweights in this conference.' In: Stephen F. Austin.
Southwestern Athletic -- Grambling State lost, 80-74, on Feb. 26 to Alabama State, and suddenly there's a glimmer of hope among Alcorn State, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Southern and Texas Southern -- SWAC teams that turned back ASU this season. If the Lady Hornets could do it, they can, right? It's just a glimmer. The tournament is next weekend in Biloxi, Miss. In: Grambling State.
Sun Belt -- Louisiana Tech, undefeated and virtually untested in the league, will be in the NCAA tournament regardless of how it plays next weekend in Bowling Green, Ky. 'I also like Western Kentucky's chances,' said O.K. Davis, the Lady Techsters' beat writer for The Ruston Daily Leader. 'Always a well-coached, disciplined, consistently successful team, they've been to national postseason play and know what it's about.' A surprise winner? Don't count on it, but 'don't count out Denver,' Davis warns. The Pioneers are 'extremely well-coached by Pam Tanner.' In: Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky.
Trans America Athletic -- Campbell has never won the TAAC title, but the Fighting Camels have been on a near-steady climb in their six years on the scene. Campbell finished second in the regular-season race last year, then bowed in the semifinals of the league tournament in its second straight overtime tilt. This year, the Fighting Camels were back in second place in the regular season, but next weekend's tournament in Pelham, Ala., could go their way. Georgia State finished a game ahead of Campbell in the standings but lost both of the teams' regular-season meetings, 81-72 on Jan. 8 and 78-75 on Feb. 26. In: Campbell.
West Coast -- 'It's really a coin flip,' said Chuck Dybdal, who covers St. Mary's for the Contra Costa Times in northern California. 'Pepperdine is athletic, physically the best team in the league, and they have two of the West Coast Conference's best players in Rasheeda Clark (a sophomore guard and the league's player of the year) and Damaris Hinojosa (a freshman guard). And then Santa Clara (at home for the league tournament starting today) is aggressive and physical; they just pound you and pound you.' St. Mary's also would have been a challenger but was upset in the first round today by Portland. In: Santa Clara.
Western Athletic -- 'No telling,' said Ann Miller, Hawaii's beat writer for The Honolulu Advertiser. 'The favored team hasn't won since I covered the WAC. Don't think the regular-season champ has won as long as I can remember. All that's sure about the WAC is that nothing is sure.' Southern Methodist and Hawaii are the only league teams that would draw committee consideration for at-large berths, but certainly neither would be a slam dunk. 'SMU, Hawaii and Rice are probably the best teams, and all have marquee players (senior forward Karlin Kennedy, senior swing player Raylene Howard and senior guard Marla Brumfield, respectively). Still don't know who will be the first seed,' Miller said. 'And Tulsa, loaded with seniors, and Fresno State are capable of beating those three.' In: Southern Methodist and Fresno State, playing at home next weekend in the league tournament.
So, all together now, here's how the In Crowd might be seeded:
Incidentally, it'd be OK with me if ESPN also did a WNIT selection show.
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