Bubble Wrap 2013: Final wrap

Here's the final Bubble Wrap for this season, reflecting the results of the six power-conference tournaments and leaving several on-the-fringe NCAA teams cheering for a few outcomes in some other league tourneys.

To date, just shy of a dozen of our previously identified locks or bubble teams -- Duke (ACC), Notre Dame (Big East), Purdue (Big Ten), Baylor (Big XII), Marist (Metro Atlantic), Stanford (Pac-12), Texas A&M (SEC), Chattanooga (Southern), South Dakota State (Summit League), Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt) and Gonzaga (West Coast) -- have nailed down their conferences' automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. Princeton had already rounded the number of bubbles and locks with automatic bids up to 12 by winning the Ivy League's regular-season championship. (Elsewhere, though, Stetson, previously considered to have fallen out of the running for an at-large berth, took the conference tournament title in the Atlantic Sun, leaving Florida Gulf Coast, who had nearly run the table with a 20-1 in-conference record, still on the bubble.)

Through last week's wrap, the number of teams with records solid enough to lock up an at-large bid to this year's NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament had slowly grown from 25 in mid-February when we began our analysis, to 29. With the shift of 12 teams from locks to automatic bids, we now see just 23 teams remaining as at-large locks, regardless the results of their conference tournaments. Those locks continue to be spread over eight conferences -- the Atlantic 10 (one lock), the Atlantic Coast Conference (three locks), the BIG EAST (three locks), the Big Ten (four locks), the Big XII (three locks), the Colonial Athletic Association (one lock), the Pac-12 (three locks) and the Southeastern Conference (five locks).

Meanwhile, the number of teams still "on the bubble" has continued to dwindle from the 45 bubble teams identified in our opening Bubble Wrap of the season to 28 last week and now to 23 in this week's Final Wrap (though the chances of even some of those are quite bleak, as you'll see below), as some programs have simply failed to get the job done down the stretch.

The high number of teams previously identified as locks or bubbles who have won their conference's automatic bids is good news for those remaining teams on the bubble. If you'll recall, we had added back eight at-large berths into our previous estimates of available at-large bids to account for the likelihood that at least some of the conference championships would be won by our locks, freeing up their locked-up berths for bubble teams elsewhere. As noted above, however, the number of locks winning tournament championships was even higher, making even more at-large berths than previously estimated available.

We currently estimate that the remaining 23 bubble teams are vying for between 10 and 12 available at-large spots. With Selection Monday just four days away,that means roughly half the teams with cases to make will have cheers -- and the other half tears -- when the results are announced on the annual Selection Show, slated to air on ESPN at 7 p.m. Eastern this coming Monday. Who are those teams and what are their cases? Read on.

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
LOCKS
DAYTON 27-2/15-1 (RPI 14)

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	ST. JOSEPH’S
CONFERENCE	A10
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-8
CONFERENCE ONLY	13-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	36
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	53
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	12-4
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	4-4
BEST WINS	Maryland (50-49); n.Dayton (61-54)
WORST LOSSES	n.Central Michigan (84-98)
REMAINING GAMES	Fordham in A-10 championship final in Brooklyn, N.Y. (3/16)

Outlook: Nearly four months after the Hawks' eye-opening win over Maryland, Saint Joe’s pulled off something no other A-10 team had done this year: Beat Dayton. That landmark win came in the conference tourney semis Sunday. (Important note: The victory came at home in Hagan Arena.) Before that, the only other Top-100 wins for the Hawks were @Drexel (47-45) and a sweep of Duquesne, in both the regular season @Duquesne (69-68, OT) and in the A-10 quarterfinal (73-60), again at home. The Hawks would like revenge in the conference tournament final against the win-or-WNIT Rams (24-7/14-2/RPI 60), who have only three Top-100 wins on their resume.) The Hawks will have to wait until Saturday, for that rematch in Brooklyn, but a victory, while essential for Fordham, probably isn't necessary now for the Hawks. Pencil in St. Joseph's as the first team that other bubble teams will be cheering for this coming weekend.

	CHARLOTTE
CONFERENCE	A10
RECORDS
OVERALL	24-5
CONFERENCE ONLY	13-2
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	54
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	144
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	12-3
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	9-1
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-2
BEST WINS	Duquesne (63-54); @Saint Joseph’s (71-66)
WORST LOSSES	n.Temple (47-48)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The 49ers picked a bad time to see their 13-game winning streak end, to Temple in the A-10 quarters by one point in a tight game from tip to buzzer. Now Charlotte (who, remember, didn't play Dayton) has to be really nervous, and will certainly root for Saint Joe’s to take the conference title Saturday, thereby earning the A-10’s automatic bid and leaving an at-large berth free for those with lesser resume´s. Charlotte's Charlotte's out-of-conference losses include Florida State (a 54-70 blowout), Kansas State at home (63-67) and Toledo (66-76) in a holiday tourney on a neutral floor; their best pre-A10 win was over Florida Gulf Coast (79-60) at home.

	DUQUESNE
CONFERENCE	A10
RECORDS
OVERALL	23-7
CONFERENCE ONLY	12-4
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	41
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	78
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	11-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-5
BEST WINS	Delaware (51-47); @West Virginia (62-54)
WORST LOSSES	Miami-Ohio (49-54)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Duquesne’s fall to the Hawks (60-73) in the quarterfinal was the first move (before the win over Dayton) in Saint Joseph's resume´-enhancing two-step at the A-10 tourney last weekend. The loss leaves the Dukes looking rather “iffy,” since the Delaware win looks good but is misleading (as is that RPI) because Elena Delle Donne was out of the picture at the time, and there was and there was a rematch in a Dartmouth tourney won by Del-leDonne-ware by 15 (60-45). Duquesne tested itself well otherwise out-of-conference, losing by just four points @North Carolina (58-62) and winning @West Virginia (62-54).

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
DUKE 30-2/20-1 (RPI 5)
LOCKS
NORTH CAROLINA 28-6/16-5 (RPI 15)
MARYLAND 24-7/15-5 (RPI 12)	FLORIDA STATE 22-9/12-8 (RPI 20)

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	MIAMI
CONFERENCE	ACC
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	12-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	50
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	58
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	6-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-7
BEST WINS	Penn State (69-65); Duke (69-65)
WORST LOSSES	@Virginia (52-62)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Despite the loss of point guard Chelsea Gray for the remainder of the season, Duke sewed up the ACC Tournament Championship last weekend and with it the conference’s automatic bid.

The remaining locks didn’t lose any ground, and Maimi likely hopped off that bubble in the right direction by beating Duke last week and avoiding a loss to the DFL team (Virginia Tech) in Greensboro over the weekend. Miami’s other notable out-of-conference games were a 12-point drop to Tennessee (67-79) and a victory @Rutgers by a football score of 42-34 and there were seven wins over teams at or below the Top-125. But there is nothing really bad in the ‘Canes’ resume, and those two huge wins over Penn State and Duke (by identical scores, by the way) should be enough to remove any doubt on Selection Monday.

ATLANTIC SUN CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
STETSON 23-8/17-4 (RPI 88)
LOCKS
The Atlantic Sun Conference Currently Has No Locks

ATLANTIC SUN CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	FLORIDA GULF COAST
CONFERENCE	Atlantic Sun
RECORDS
OVERALL	26-6
CONFERENCE ONLY	20-1
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	51
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	167
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	14-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	9-1
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-2
BEST WINS	LSU (76-70)
WORST LOSSES	Central Florida (53-60)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: FGCU lost to Stetson by six (64-70) in the A-Sun final after winning every other league game by double digits. Stetson is easily the second-best team in the league, but even with a 26-6 record, it’s hard to get away with that loss and still get in the Big Bracket when only two other league teams are numbered even as high as the Top 101-200 and your only other Top-100 wins are over LSU and n. Hampton (70-59). Had LSU gone farther than the SEC quarters, FGCU might have had more of a case.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE
NOTRE DAME 31-1/19-0 (RPI 2)
LOCKS
CONNECTICUT 29-4/16-3 (RPI 3)
SYRACUSE 24-7/12-6 (RPI 33)	LOUISVILLE 24-8/12-6 (RPI 21)

BIG EAST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	ST. JOHN’S
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	18-12
CONFERENCE ONLY	12-6
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	39
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	12
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	7-8
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-9
BEST WINS	Georgetown (76-72, OT); @ Rutgers (48-44)
WORST LOSSES	n.Texas (60-70); @Seton Hall (51-61)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The all-chalk Big East tourney brought a revenge win over Seton Hall (51-45) and a seven-point loss to Louisville (55-62). The final week of the regular season brought wins @Villanova (52-49) and over DePaul (67-54), sandwiched around the loss @Seton Hall (51-61). They were St. John's only Top-50 wins, but this team should be okay.

	VILLANOVA
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	10-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	28
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	29
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	13-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	5-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	4-5
BEST WINS	Princeton (61-54); DePaul (65-54); Syracuse (64-59); @Syracuse (77-75)
WORST LOSSES	@Providence (60-65, OT)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: ‘Nova played a respectable, if not awe-inspiring, out-of-conference schedule. Delaware was the heavyweight, but Villanova can point to wins over four other Top-100 teams in addition to its signature win over Princeton. The Wildcats, who lost by five to Syracuse (56-61) in the quarters (what do they say about beating a team three times in a year?), look better than any of the conference’s other 9-7 (or 10-8) teams.

	DE PAUL
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-11
CONFERENCE ONLY	10-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	26
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	11
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	6-9
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	5-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-9
BEST WINS	Princeton (86-75); Louisville (86-80)
WORST LOSSES	@Marquette (66-70)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Note to teams in the conference formerly known as the Big East next year: Try to get on the other side of the bracket from UConn. The Blue Demons didn't heed that warning and got clobbered (61-94). But there's nothing bad here, except maybe the part about playing only two true road games out-of-conference -- @Kentucky (losing in a 64-96 rout) and @Loyola-Ill. (a healthy, 87-69 victory). DePaul is probably behind the other Big East bubbles, but still in decent shape.

	SOUTH FLORIDA
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	10-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	53
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	57
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-9
BEST WINS	@Louisville (73-62); Syracuse (68-66); Florida Gulf Coast (67-46)
WORST LOSSES	n.Creighton (74-91); St. John’s (59-65)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Note to teams in the ACC next year: Try to get on the other side of the bracket from Notre Dame. USF didn't heed that warning in this year’s Big East swan song, although the Bulls certainly did better than DePaul did against UConn (the Irish won by nine, 75-66). Nonetheless, USF got into the picture seriously with a strong February and a must-win (by three, 42-39) over Rutgers in the whatever round. The Bulls’ profile is not as strong as DePaul's – USF’s best out-of-conference win was over Florida Gulf Coast), but it'd take several bid-stealing games in mid-major tourneys this weekend to deny USF.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
PURDUE 24-8/13-6 (RPI 13)
LOCKS
PENN STATE 25-5/15-3 (RPI 6)	NEBRASKA 23-8/13-5 (RPI 16)
MICHIGAN STATE 24-8/12-7 (RPI 16)	MICHIGAN 21-10/10-8 (RPI 34)

BIG TEN CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	IOWA
CONFERENCE	Big Ten
RECORDS
OVERALL	20-12
CONFERENCE ONLY	9-9
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	47
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	22
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	9-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	4-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	5-8
BEST WINS	Iowa State (50-42); Purdue (62-46); @Purdue (72-52); @Michigan (63-57)
WORST LOSSES	@ Florida International (65-66); Northwestern (65-67)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Iowa has as many major victories as any bubble team, including other respectable wins over n.West Virginia (79-70) and Middle Tennessee (69-63, OT), and what was at the time a major upset over then-nationally ranked Texas (86-63). But the Hawkeyes’ final 11 games consisted of seven losses, three wins over the bottom third of the league, and a win @Purdue. The Hawkeyes could have sealed a bid with a better performance than their 61-76 loss to Nebraska in the B1G quarters, but for now they're at home and nervous.

	ILLINOIS
CONFERENCE	Big Ten
RECORDS
OVERALL	16-13
CONFERENCE ONLY	9-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	79
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	41
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	7-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	4-5
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-7
BEST WINS	Georgia (70-59); @Nebraska (62-52)
WORST LOSSES	Bradley (77-83); Northwestern (58-62)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The Illini finished with a one-point loss to Wisconsin (57-58) in the first round of the B1G tourney, which is not the way a team with 16 wins -- only six of them vs. Top-100 teams -- needs to go out. There were a bunch of missed opportunities in November and December until the Bulldogs visited. The other out-of-conference losses were to Iowa State (50-68), a heart-breaker to Illinois State (68-69), Colorado (62-69) and a beat-down @Texas Tech (56-75). Illinois needed one or two of those, or one of its three four-and-under-point losses to one of the locks, to have a chance.

BIG WEST CONFERENCE
LOCKS
The Big West Conference Currently Has No Locks

BIG WEST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	PACIFIC
CONFERENCE	Big West
RECORDS
OVERALL	24-6
CONFERENCE ONLY	14-4
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	42
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	113
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-1
BEST WINS	Saint Mary’s (75-72)
WORST LOSSES	UC-Santa Barbara (47-52); @Hawaii (71-74, OT)
REMAINING GAMES	Cal State Fullerton in Big West Tournament semifinal (3/15)

Outlook: Pacific boasts a strong out-of-conference performance against a relatively-strong schedule – a close loss @Florida (82-89), a thumping @Stanford (43-72), and wins over Fresno State (66-56) and Fordham (62-40) -- but you can't lose four league games in the Big West and be seriously considered for an at-large. The Tigers are going to need to nail down the automatic this coming weekend.

BIG XII CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
BAYLOR 32-1/21-0 (RPI 1)
LOCKS
IOWA STATE 23-8/14-7 (RPI 22)
OKLAHOMA 22-10/12-8 (RPI 30)	TEXAS TECH 21-10/11-8 (RPI 48)

BIG XII CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	OKLAHOMA STATE
CONFERENCE	Big XII
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	10-10
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	35
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	44
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	8-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	4-7
BEST WINS	Iowa State (71-42); Oklahoma (83-62)
WORST LOSSES	@Kansas State (70-76)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Nothing like an extra game vs. Baylor (69-77 in the Big XII Tournament semifinals) to boost the RPI, huh? There are no downers anywhere, other than a suspect out-of-conference schedule (eight straight opponents rated Top-150 or worse), so the Cowgirls should be fine.

	WEST VIRGINIA
CONFERENCE	Big XII
RECORDS
OVERALL	17-13
CONFERENCE ONLY	9-10
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	52
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	18
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	7-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	5-5
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-11
BEST WINS	Oklahoma (82-63); @Iowa State (68-66)
WORST LOSSES	@Texas (45-58)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The Mountaineers were within one point of Oklahoma in the Big X(II) quarters, but it's still a loss (64-65), coming just four days after losing @Texas (45-58). West Virginia still has a case, with a number of good wins, including not only the two identified above but also @Boston University (60-57), @Virginia (54-47), @Oklahoma State (67-61) and on the road against former Big XII bubble @Kansas (72-56). But there just might not be enough of them, in light of the Mountaineers 0-3 and 3-4 stretch run, leaving Morgantown with plenty of frazzled nerves this coming Monday.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION
LOCKS
DELAWARE 27-3/18-0 (RPI 17)

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION BUBBLES
	JAMES MADISON
CONFERENCE	Colonial
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-9
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	66
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	87
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-4
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-4
BEST WINS	n.Wisconsin-Green Bay (89-86, OT)
WORST LOSSES	Richmond (66-70)
REMAINING GAMES	Towson in CAA quarterfinal (3/15)

Outlook: JMU's best chance for an at-large bid was to win @Del-leDonne-ware on February 24, but the Blue Hens won by one point (61-60). It's now the automatic or bust for the Dukes, whose only other Top-100 win was over n.Wichita State (63-58) in Cancun.

HORIZON LEAGUE
LOCKS
The Horizon League Currently Has No Locks

HORIZON LEAGUE BUBBLES
	WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
CONFERENCE	Horizon
RECORDS
OVERALL	26-2
CONFERENCE ONLY	16-0
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	24
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	134
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	13-2
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	10-0
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	0-0
BEST WINS	@Marquette (55-46)
ONLY LOSSES	n.James Madison (86-89, OT); @Central Michigan (50-54)
REMAINING GAMES	Valparaiso in Horizon League quarterfinal (3/13 – 80-59); Detroit in Horizon League semis (3/15)

Outlook: No problems here. Though the strength of schedule is not great, there were only two sub-Top-200 out-of-conference opponents on Green Bay’s slate. The Phoenix can also point to blowout wins over respectable teams like Missouri (55-33) and @Wichita State (63-42). For some reason Green Bay played CMU twice, home and away, and destroyed the Chips i75-48) in Green Bay in the first meeting before falling to them on the road. If it weren't for the Selection Committee's history of sticking it to deserving mid-majors (especially-long memories at Western Kentucky), the Phoenix would be a lock.

METRO ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
MARIST 26-6/21-0 (RPI 45)
LOCKS
The Metro Atlantic Conference Currently Has No Locks
METRO ATLANTIC CONFERENCE BUBBLES
The Metro Atlantic Conference Currently Has No Bubble Teams

Outlook: Marist nailed down the automatic last weekend, leaving no other locks or bubble teams in the Metro Atlantic, and several sighs of relief from elsewhere on this list.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
LOCKS
The Mid-American Conference Currently Has No Locks

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	TOLEDO
CONFERENCE	Mid-American
RECORDS
OVERALL	27-2
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-1
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	44
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	217
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	12-1
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	9-0
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	0-1
BEST WINS	@Marquette (82-71); n.Charlotte (76-66)
WORST LOSSES	Central Michigan (66-73)
REMAINING GAMES	n.Central Michigan in MAC semifinals (3/15)

Outlook: It's unusual to see a MAC team that high in the RPI, but then that stat is over-rated anyway. Apart from the win at Marquette, he Rockets' big out-of-conference test was @Dayton and they only lost to the Flyers by three points (76-79). Toledo avenged itself in a big way @Central Michigan (76-63) when they visited the Chippewas in Mount Pleasant a week ago; the MAC Tournament semifinals sets up the third meeting between the two The Rockets will be an interesting case should they lose this weekend, although they were surely rooting for Marquette and Charlotte to perform better last week.

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
LOCKS
The Missouri Valley Conference Currently Has No Locks

	CREIGHTON
CONFERENCE	Missouri Valley
RECORDS
OVERALL	23-6
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	31
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	77
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	12-4
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-1
BEST WINS	Nebraska (66-57)
WORST LOSSES	@Indiana State (41-58)
REMAINING GAMES	Southern Illinois in MVC quarterfinal (3/15)

Outlook: The Bluejays have respectable wins @South Dakota State (63-54), @BYU (65-52), and n.South Florida (91-74), plus that big one over in-state rival Nebraska. Creighton could conceivably afford a loss in the Valley final to Wichita State or even Illinois State, but the Jays had better get to the final.

Once on track as an MVC bubble team, Wichita State (22-9/15-3/RPI 69) actually has the top seed in Arch Madness, but the Shockers did far less out-of-conference -- their only preconference Top-100 wins coming @SMU (61-59) and against Northern Colorado (51-35) -- so they’ll likely need the automatic.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
LOCKS
The Mountain West Conference Currently Has No Locks

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	SAN DIEGO STATE
CONFERENCE	Mountain West
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-5
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-1
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	46
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	124
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	11-3
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	10-0
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	0-3
BEST WINS	SMU (88-72)
WORST LOSSES	Fresno State (72-80)
REMAINING GAMES	n.Nevada in Mountain West quarterfinals (3/14: 67-39); n.New Mexico in Mountain West semifinals (3/15)

Outlook: There are some decent wins on the Aztecs’ resume´ -- n.Auburn (78-57), @San Diego (58-54) – and the Mountain West isn’t as bad overall as it was last year, but it still looks like a one-bid league. That’s a shame, because outside of pulling off a major out-of-conference upset, the Aztecs have done everything a mid-major is supposed to do. Only three out-of-conference opponents rwereanked below the Top-100 and one was an unexpectedly disappointing USC).

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE
LOCKS
The Northeast Conference Currently Has No Locks

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	QUINNIPIAC
CONFERENCE	Northeast
RECORDS
OVERALL	28-2
CONFERENCE ONLY	19-0
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	43
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	241
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	14-2
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	12-0
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-0
BEST WINS	St. John’s (75-72)
WORST LOSSES	@Hartford (61-67); n.Georgia Tech (57-74)
REMAINING GAMES	Mount St. Mary’s in NEC semifinal (3/13: 63-56); Saint Francis-Pa. in NEC final (3/17)

Outlook: The Bobcats have done more out-of-conference than several other bubble teams on this list, also winning @James Madison (65-60), and the St. John’s win was one of only three home games on their preconference slate. Quinnipiac also ran the table in league play. That triple-digit strength-of-schedule still implies problems, though the good news for Bobcat fans is that they'll play at home in NEC tourney games. Still, there probably isn't enough for the committee to look at should Q fail to nail down the automatic.

PAC-12 CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
STANFORD 31-2/20-1 (RPI 5)
LOCKS
CALIFORNIA 28-3/18-2 (RPI 9)
UCLA 25-7/16-5 (RPI 11)	COLORADO 25-6/14-6 (RPI 25)
PAC-12 CONFERENCE BUBBLES
The Pac-12 Conference Currently Has No Bubble Teams

Outlook: Stanford nailed down the automatic last weekend in Seattle, and none of the other conference locks did anything to hurt themselves. As for former Pac-12 bubble Washington (21-12/13-9/RPI 83), forget about it. The Huskies finished out the regular season by hosting the Bay Area teams and needed an upset to have any chance. Instead, they got squished twice – Stanford (36-71); California (50-78) -- and their early exit from the tournament did nothing to to help their case.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
TEXAS A&M 24-9/14-5 (RPI 10)
LOCKS
TENNESSEE 25-7/16-3 (RPI 7)
KENTUCKY 27-5/15-4 (RPI 7)	GEORGIA 25-6/13-5 (RPI 19)
SOUTH CAROLINA 24-7/12-6 (RPI 18)	LSU 20-11/11-7 (RPI 37)

             

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	VANDERBILT
CONFERENCE	SEC
RECORDS
OVERALL	20-11
CONFERENCE ONLY	10-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	29
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	17
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	8-9
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-10
BEST WINS	@Oklahoma (76-63); Texas A&M (61-51)
WORST LOSSES	n.Virginia (60-73)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: Vandy didn't stumble against Missouri in the first round at the Gwinnett Center and is in good shape. The next teams down in the SEC standings all have losing records and didn't beat any higher-seeded teams in the tourney, which means the SEC is about as cut-and-dry as the Pac-12.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
CHATTANOOGA 29-3/22-1 (RPI 38)
LOCKS
The Southern Conference Currently Has No Locks
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE BUBBLES
The Southern Conference Currently Has No Bubble Teams

Outlook: Former Southern Conference bubble Chattanooga locked up the automatic bid last weekend, leaving no locks and no bubble teams in the league, and the same sighs of relief as when Marist won its conference championship.

SUMMIT CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 25-7/16-2 (RPI 67)
LOCKS
The Summmit Conference Currently Has No Locks
SUMMIT CONFERENCE BUBBLES
The Summit Conference Currently Has No Bubble Teams

Outlook: The Jackrabbits, a former bubble team, sealed the Summit Conference crown Tuesday with a home win over in-state rival South Dakota, leaving the conference with no other locks or bubbles and bringing joy to bubbles elsewhere.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 25-7/20-3 (RPI 40)
LOCKS
The Sun Belt Conference Currently Has No Locks
SUN BELT CONFERENCE BUBBLES
The Sun Belt Conference Currently Has No Bubble Teams

Outlook: The Blue Raiders locked up the Sun Belt’s automatic bid Monday, with a 53-48 victory over UALR in the conference tournament final in Hot Springs, Ark. That leaves no other locks or bubble teams in the Sun Belt, and one more at-large bid up for grabs for bubble teams elsewhere.

WEST COAST CONFERENCE
AUTOMATIC
GONZAGA 27-5/20-3 (RPI 40)
LOCKS
The West Coast Conference Currently Has No Locks

WEST COAST CONFERENCE BUBBLES
	SAINT MARY'S
CONFERENCE	West Coast
RECORDS
OVERALL	20-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	12-6
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	49
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	64
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-8
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-4
BEST WINS	Gonzaga (54-51); Chattanooga (70-67)
WORST LOSSES	@Pepperdine (67-80)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The Gaels fell to San Diego (53-74) in the WCC semifinals last weekend, leaving the second-best team in the league without much chance of an at-large bid.

	SAN DIEGO
CONFERENCE	West Coast
RECORDS
OVERALL	19-9
CONFERENCE ONLY	13-5
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	58
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	79
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-5
BEST WINS	@Saint Mary’s (73-70); Saint Mary’s (67-50); n.Saint Mary’s (74-53)
WORST LOSSES	@Arizona State (39-72)
REMAINING GAMES	None

Outlook: The Torreros have had the Gael’s number this season, beating Saint Mary’s three times, most recently in the WCC Tournament semifinals. They also hung with Iowa for much of the game in a holiday tournament hosted in San Diego before falling, 73-83. But with those games as the highlights on their resume´, USD needed the automatic, which they lost to the Zags, 50-62, in Vegas on Monday. That means not much chance of an at-large bid for either West Coast Conference bubble, but both should both make noise in the WNIT.

Key: Records through Tuesday, March 12. RPI/SOS through Monday, March 11, from realtimerpi.com. R/N: road-neutral. FEB: Record since February 1. OOC: Out-of-conference. n.: Game played on neutral court. Within each conference, bubbles and locks are listed in order of their current conference standings. Only games against Division I teams are counted. Conference records include league tournament games.