Are the Lynx really vulnerable? L.A. will supply the acid test

One game. One play. One shot. One second.

Gone was the aura of invincibility with which the Minnesota Lynx started the season. At the end of the day, just one point separated the WNBA reigning champs from elimination at the hands of a Seattle four-seed that entered the playoffs with half its starters injured and a sub-.500 record.

That has to have instilled a lot of confidence in the Sparks, who got to watch the Lynx-Storm series play out in the comfort of their living rooms, having proved to themselves, even more importantly than to the fans, that they were more than capable of pulling together a win on the road when it counted.

A player-by-player breakdown of this series is challenging, because Los Angeles uses so many of its starters at what are not their natural positions. Is Kristi Toliver a point guard simply because she brings the ball up the floor when Alana Beard isn’t around to do it? Not really –- her playing style would make her more of a two or combo guard. Is Candace Parker a center just because of the popular mythology that she can play any position from the one to the five? Or because she’s the tallest player on the floor and usually takes the opening tip? Again, not really. She might be able to play every position, but she doesn’t play them all equally well. She plays far more capably at the three or the four.

But we'll give a step-by-step breakdown a shot anyway, starting with ...

 

REGULAR-SEASON RECORDS

Team	Overall	Western Conf	Home	Road	Last 10 Games
Minnesota Lynx	27-7	17-5	16-1	11-6	7-3
Los Angeles Sparks	24-10	15-7	16-1	11-6	7-3

The Lynx are the reigning champs and finished the season with the best record in the league. As Los Angeles coach Carol Ross put it, the title is theirs until someone takes it from them.

And though they enter the conference finals as a distinct underdog, the Sparks could be the team to do just that. They were not far off the Lynx’ pace, finishing the season just three games back. And if you weigh the latter half of the season more heavily than the beginning –- which is justifiable given the Sparks’ new coach and major personnel shifts, as compared to a team that is largely unchanged since last season -– the two are even closer, with the Sparks just one game behind over the last 10 games.

REGULAR-SEASON HEAD-T0-HEAD MATCHUPS

An even split, with each team defending its home floor, which weighs in favor of Minnesota, since they own home-court advantage in this series.

05/24 – Los Angeles 84 @ Minnesota 92

07/05 – Minnesota 90 @ Los Angeles 96

09/04 – Los Angeles 77 @ Minnesota 88

09/20 – Minnesota 76 @ Los Angeles 92

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS RECORD

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx v. No. 4 Seattle Storm

Game One:  Seattle  70 @ Minnesota 78

Game Two:  Minnesota 79 @ Seattle 86 (2OT)

Game Three: Seattle 72 @ Minnesota 73

No. 2 Los Angeles Sparks v. No. 3 San Antonio Silver Stars

Game One: San Antonio 86 @ Los Angeles 93

Game Two: Los Angeles 101 @ San Antonio 94

The playoff record has got to be a real confidence booster for the Sparks. True, they seemed to lack the ability to put away a resilient opponent in San Antonio, frittering away double-digit leads in both their games and having to withstand late rallies in order to pull out their wins. But at the same time, there’s a lot of encouragement to be garnered from the fact that in the end, they found away to win -- and not only at home, but also on the road. And, as well, against a well-coached opponent that had beaten them in three out of four regular-season contests. And perhaps most exciting of all for fans, they got to see a side of Candace Parker that has not been much in evidence over the last few years: a player with a ferocious will to win, able to take over a game and make it happen.

Meanwhile, though Minnesota played well in its series with the Storm, the Lynx also showed some vulnerability. They struggled to put away an opponent whom they had beaten in three out of four regular-season meetings. They came within a single shot of losing the series on their own home court. And their problems cannot be attributed to the reappearance of Lauren Jackson, who coming off a late-season hamstring injury, looked fatigued and contributed next to nothing (save that one Hail Mary in Game Two) on the offensive end of the court.

POINT GUARD

Minnesota Lynx: Lindsay Whalen HGT: 5-9 WGT: 160 AGE: 30 YRS PRO: 8 EFF: +9.33 College: Minnesota

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
12.0	0.505	0.500	0.727	4.2	5.4	2.06	0.7	0.2	2.09	27.0
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
12.0	0.270	0.000	0.889	4.0	4.7	2.67	1.0	0.0	3.0	32.7

Los Angeles Sparks: Kristi Toliver HGT: 5-7 WGT: 130 AGE: 25 YRS PRO: 3 EFF: +21.0 College: Maryland

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
17.5	0.491	0.424	0.901	3.2	4.9	3.65	1.3	0.1	3.0	31.5
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
26.0	0.567	0.714	1.0	3.0	2.0	4.5	0.5	0.5	3.0	37.5

The point is one of those positions where a player-to-player comparison can be a bit misleading. Lindsay Whalen is a true point guard; indeed, she may well have supplanted Seattle's Sue Bird as the best point guard in the WNBA. At the very least it can be said that the U.S. Women's Olympic Team didn't miss a beat when Whalen subbed in for Bird in London this summer. Whalen's 5.4 assists per game in the regular season earned her the season's Peak Performer Award, and with just 2.06 turnovers per game this season, she owns an impressive 2.6:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. And she is not a mere facilitator, however important that might be. Her 12 points per game requires the respect of defenders, and she has been known to explode for considerably more, as, for example, in Game 1 of the Lynx' series against Seattle, when her 20 points led the way to victory for Minnesota.

Whalen has a three-point shot in her arsenal, but she is not a prolific scorer from distance. She made only 26 three-point attempts this season, and though she netted half of them, you're far more likely to find Whalen slicing through traffic to the hoop than stepping out to shoot the three.

Whalen's strengths are some of Kristi Toliver's major weaknesses. Toliver is more of a two-guard who brings the ball up the floor because that's what she's been asked to do -- and it shows. Though she dished out 4.9 assists per game this season, she is not the best of ballhandlers, turning it over 3.65 times per game, for an adequate, but unimpressive, 1.3 A/TO. And in the Sparks' playoff series against San Antonio, Toliver went from bad to worse in that department, coughing the ball up more than twice as often (4.5 turnovers per game) than she delivered the dish (2.0 per game).

At the same time, it was for good reason that Toliver won the league's Most Improved Award this season. Her 17.5 points per game in the regular season by itself would have made her the more potent player of this pair on the offensive, even before she upped her production to 26 points per game in the first round of the playoffs. And a significant number of Toliver's points come from beyond the arc, where she nailed nearly three times as many long balls (64, out of 151 attempts) than Whalen even attempted this season.

Whalen, on the whole, is the better defender of the two, though Toliver's defense has improved by leaps and bounds this year, right along with the rest of her game.

In part because of her reliance on the three-ball, Toliver can be streaky: She's been held to single digits a half-dozen times this season. And her May 29 outing against Tulsa, when she nearly offset her 16 points with 14 turnovers is certainly a game she'll be happy to forget. But Whalen while much more reliable in terms of her assists and turnovers, has also had her off-nights, including 10 single-digit scoring outings, and Whalen can't begin to rival Toliver's 15 20-plus point outings this year.

The bottom line is best summed up by their respective efficiency ratings. If Whalen is the better point guard, Toliver, despite the turnovers, is the more efficient and productive player overall. Her +21 EFF (to Whalen's +9.3) ranks Toliver among the top 10 players in the league as measured by efficiency. Moreover, Toliver's performance in the West semifinals has now shown that she is capable of coming up big in the clutch.

Of course, that's when Whalen is operating at full capacity. But she's not. She was already nursing the broken ring finger on her left hand she injured during the London Olympics, and then went down hard in Game 3 against Seattle, injuring her left wrist. Between trips to the on-site X-Ray room, Whalen soldiered on through the pain of what she described as a sprained wrist and coach Cheryl Reeve later identified as a bone bruise, but the injury clearly hampered her effectiveness. With Whalen limited to doing everything from dribbling to shooting with her dominant right hand, Sue Bird was able to overplay Whalen to the right even more than usual.

Fortunately, nothing new was broken, and Reeve said Whalen will be available to play come Thursday. But a bone bruise is an intensely painful injury that typically takes weeks to months to heal, sometimes even longer than a clean break. Whalen is a trooper, and was working out with her wrist wrapped on Wednesday, but it's highly unlikely she'll be in top form in this series.

Advantage: Los Angeles, thanks to Toliver's broader offensive arsenal and Whalen's injured hand.

SHOOTING GUARD

Minnesota Lynx: Seimone Augustus HGT: 6-0 WGT: 165 AGE: 28 YRS PRO: 6 EFF: +18.33 College: LSU

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
16.6	0.491	0.437	0.852	3.6	2.5	1.72	0.9	0.2	1.07	28.5
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
20.0	0.457	0.286	0.842	5.7	1.3	2.0	2.0	0.7	1.0	38.7

Los Angeles Sparks: Alana Beard HGT: 5-11 WGT: 160 AGE: 30 YRS PRO: 8 EFF: +16.0 College: Duke

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
11.4	0.436	0.402	0.795	2.2	3.3	2.52	2.0	0.4	2.76	30.8
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
17.5	0.625	0.000	0.556	2.0	2.0	01.5	2.5	0.0	2.5	32.5

Alana Beard was a gamble for Los Angeles -- a gamble that has paid such huge dividends for the Sparks that it should have earned Penny Toler the 2012 General Manager of the Year Award, if there were such a thing. After two years in Washington sidelined by injuries, she has returned to the game at very near her top form, steadily improving as the season progressed. Though she averaged 11.4 points per game over the regular season taken as a whole, her numbers have been closer to 15 points per game since the Olympic break. What's more, she has taken her game up another notch since the postseason began. Apart from the 17.5 points per game she averaged against San Antonio, Beard is also one of the best, if not the best defender on the Sparks' roster.

That said, Beard is still not Seimone Augustus, an elite player who, if not sharing the ball on the Lynx' talent-packed roster, would have to have been part of the conversation for MVP. Augustus was already averaging 16.6 points per game during the regular season, and she, too, has upped her numbers in the first round of the playoffs. She can be counted on to produce high double-digit scoring pretty near every time she takes to the floor.

Beard held Augustus to an atypical outing, limiting her to just eight points and a single rebound in the most recent meeting between the two. Augustus' minutes were compressed from her season average of 28 to just 22 in that late-season game, as Reeve rested her stars as much as possible in preparation for the playoffs. Not all of the shortfall was due to reduced playing time, however, as Augustus, who is very close to a 50-percent field-goal shooter, managed just 27 percent from the floor -- and went 0-for-three from the arc -- on that night. However, Augustus can certainly be forgiven one off night, after putting up 25, 18, and 23 points in her other three outings against the Sparks this season, and averaging 20 points per game against Seattle in Round One.

Advantage: Minnesota, but not by nearly as much as one might think. It will be interesting to see whether Beard will continue on her current trajectory of steady improvement.

SMALL FORWARD

Minnesota Lynx: Maya Moore HGT: 6-0 WGT: 175 AGE: 23 YRS PRO: 1 EFF: +18.0 College: UConn

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
16.4	0.465	0.388	0.879	6.0	3.6	1.82	1.5	0.6	2.53	29.7
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
16.0	0.405	0.421	0.857	6.3	3.3	0.67	1.0	0.7	3.0	38.3

Los Angeles Sparks: DeLisha Milton-Jones HGT: 6-1 WGT: 185 AGE: 38 YRS PRO: 13 EFF: +9.0 College: Florida

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
10.0	0.417	0.326	0.823	4.4	1.8	1.85	1.0	0.7	2.79	27.2
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
7.5	0.500	0.500	0.857	3.5	1.0	2.0	1.0	0.5	2.0	23.5

This is where things get a bit confusing, since the Sparks really have three power forwards -- two of whom own a three-point threat -- in their starting rotation, as opposed to the conventional small forward/power forward/center lineup.

DeLisha MIlton-Jones is an often underestimated defender whose 84-inch wingspan adds nearly a foot to the effective reach of her 6-1 frame. She ranks 10th in WNBA history in career points (4.683), eighth in rebounds (2,233), and fifth in steals (550). She is smart, a savvy veteran who helped lead the Sparks to back-to-back championships in 2001 and 2002, and she knows exactly what Ross, her former college coach, wants from this team.

And, slotting her at the three, which is where she ostensibly now starts, she will be matched up with a relative WNBA newcomer. But, oh, what a novice! Collegiate All-Everything Maya Moore, in just her second year in the pros, was the most productive player in the league this season in terms of her plus/minus rating. Her numbers this season are nearly half-again higher than those of Milton-Jones, and that was before the veteran saw her playing time sliced by nearly a third since the playoffs began, with a proportionate fall-off in scoring and rebounding.

There has been no suggestion that Milton-Jones is injured, and it appears that Ross' objective may be to get more three-point threats on the court in order to spread the defense. Milton-Jones is a 33.2-percent three-point shooter, unacceptably low for an ostensible three. She's put up 89 long-ball attempts this season, draining 29 of them, but is just one-for-two from beyond the arc since the playoffs began.

As noted below, it's not like the Sparks have an army of sharpshooters waiting on the bench to sub in for Milton-Jones. Aussie guard Jenna O'Hea seems to have absorbed most of the playing time Milton-Jones has lost. O'Hea has been known to shoot the lights out on occasion, but her three-ball has been missing-in-action since the playoffs began. (She averaged just two points per game in the conference semifinals.)

So effectively, this is a matchup between an older, more experienced player who is averaging just 7.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game, and a younger, exceptionally athletic player who is putting up more than twice that.

Advantage: Minnesota, big time.

POWER FORWARD

Minnesota Lynx: Rebekkah Brunson HGT: 6.2 WGT: 184 AGE: 30 YRS PRO: 8 EFF: +16.7 College: Georgetown

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
11.4	0.505	0.0	0.679	8.9	1.2	1.29	1.2	0.9	2.29	27.0
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
16.7	0.606	0.0	0.769	11.7	0.7	3.33	1.3	1.3	3.67	38.0

Los Angeles Sparks: Nneka Ogwumike HGT: 6-2 WGT: AGE: 22 YRS PRO: R EFF: +13.0 College: Stanford

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
14.0	0.535	0.143	0.734	7.5	1.2	1.27	1.4	0.9	2.64	27.9
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
9.5	0.571	0.000	0.500	6.0	0.5	1.0	1.5	1.0	4.5	24.5

This will be another matchup between a seasoned veteran and a talented WNBA newcomer, but this time the novice will be wearing a Los Angeles uniform. It would be a crime if Nneka Ogwumike doesn't grab the league's Rookie of the Year honors this season, given that she been grabbing pretty much every rebound in her zip code for most of the season. Ogwumike is another Spark whose numbers have tapered off a bit in the postseason, in part because of foul trouble, but even so she's putting near-double-digits on the scoreboard, while continuing to haul down six boards per game.

In contrast, Rebekkah Brunson's stat line has improved markedly since the playoffs began, and her rebounding and defense of Seattle's Lauren Jackson are two key reasons why the Sparks will be facing the Lynx, not the Storm, in the conference finals.

Advantage:

Let's call this a wash. Were we basing the analysis solely on regular-season totals, it would be a big thumbs up for LA. What we don't know is whether Ross, and the Los Angeles veterans, will be able to help their talented rookie overcome the foul troubles that plagued her last week and bring her numbers up to her regular-season average, and whether it will be the regular-season version or the playoff edition of Brunson who shows up to play.

CENTER

Minnesota Lynx: Taj McWilliams-Franklin HGT: 6-2 WGT: 195 AGE: 41 YRS PRO: 13 EFF: +8.0 College: St. Edward's

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
8.4	0.519	0.400	0.750	5.4	2.5	2.0	1.0	1.4	2.27	26.6
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
5.0	0.313	0.0	0.556	4.7	2.7	1.0	0.7	1.0	3.0	27.0

Los Angeles Sparks: Candace Parker HGT: 6-4 WGT: 175 AGE: 26 YRS PRO: 4 EFF: +31.0 College: Tennessee

2012 Regular-Season Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
17.4	0.481	0.322	0.710	9.7	3.3	2.97	1.6	2.3	1.76	30.7
2012 Playoff Average
PPG	FG%	3FG%	FT%	RBG	APG	TO	SPG	BPG	PF	MPG
28.5	0.526	0.429	0.875	9.0	4.0	2.0	0.5	1.0	2.5	35.0

The numbers pretty much say it all on this one: Taj McWilliams-Franklin needs to identify whatever it is that gives her what appears to be her indefatigable strength and vigor, then go bottle and sell it. But Parker's near double-double season average of 17.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, would have far outweighed McWilliams-Franklin's 8.4 points and 5.4 boards, even had Parker not tacked on another 10-plus more points per game to her numbers in celebration of her return to playoff basketball.

The one observation worth noting here is Parker's aversion to contact, which seriously undermines her defensive abilities. Of course, anyone would be averse to contact if their shoulder popped out of its socket with the ease of Parker's. But don't be surprised if Cheryl Reeve slides Moore or Brunson over to take on the defensive assignment on Parker, leaving McWilliams-Franklin to handle Ogwumike. If so, Parker-v.-Moore would certainly make for a far more interesting matchup.

Advantage: Overwhelmingly, Los Angeles. No matter who Reeve decides to throw at her, the Candace Parker who showed up to play San Antonio was all but unstoppable.

BENCH

Minnesota: Guards -- Candice Wiggins (1.7 points 17.7 MPG), Erin Thorn, and G/F Monica Wright. Forwards -- Devereaux Peters, Amber Harris. Center -- Jessica Adair.

Los Angeles: Guards -- Jenna O'Hea, G/F Marissa Coleman, G-F April Sykes. Forwards -- Ebony Hoffman. Centers -- Jantel Lavender, F/C Nicky Anosike.

Much has been made of Minnesota's depth, and it's always nice when you can bring a player of the caliber of Candice Wiggings or Monica Wright in off the bench. But the fact is that since the playoffs began, Reeve has turned to her bench even less often than Ross, whose Sparks relievers have been notoriously unproductive for much of this season. The only Lynx bench player to make any real contribution against Seattle was Wright, who averaged five points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in a little more than 18 minutes per game. Wiggins was the only other member of the Minnesota bench to average more than 10 minutes per game, but she didn't do much with it, averaging just 1.7 points, one assist, and seven-tenths of a rebounds in over 17 minutes per game against Seattle. Rookie center Dev Peters saw roughly six minutes per game playing time, but didn't score and was limited to just one rebound. Thorn played less than two minutes per game, making no appreciable contribution, while Adair and Harris didn't play at all.

The Sparks bench doesn't look so bad in that light. True, they have no reliever who has made as great a contribution as Wright, but Lavender has been putting up 3.5 points, and pulling down 3.5 boards, in just under 14 minutes per game, which when combined with Coleman's 2.5 points and O'Hea's 2.0, actually tips the bench advantage ever-so-slightly in L.A.'s favor.

Advantage: Neutral.

COACHING

Minnesota: Cheryl Reeve, 2011 WNBA Coach of the Year

Los Angeles: Carol Ross

Both are remarkable coaches. Both have wrought huge turnarounds in their respective clubs, taking over losing programs and leading them into the playoffs, and in the case of Reeve, a WNBA championship. Ross is in her first year as a WNBA head coach, but on top of her distinguished college coaching career, she was instrumental in helping Marynell Meaors in her turnaround of the Atalanta Dream.

Advantage: Minnesota, But only because Reeve has a WNBA title to her credit, and as yet, Ross does not.

OFFENSE

Minnesota

2012 Minnesota Regular-Season Team Offensive Averages
RANK	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	APG	OPP APG	DIFF	FG%	OPP FG%	3FG%	OPP 3FG%	FT%
1	85.97	76.17	9.79	20.76	15.58	5.17	4.73	0.407	0.400	0.327	0.755
2012 Minnesota Playoff Offensive Averages
RANK	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	APG	OPP APG	DIFF	FG%	OPP FG%	3FG%	OPP 3FG%	FT%
4	76.66	76.00	0.66	15.0	19.33	-4.33	0.404	0.411	0.314	0.361	0.808

Los Angeles

2012 Los Angeles Regular-Season Team Offensive Averages
RANK	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	APG	OPP APG	DIFF	FG%	OPP FG%	3FG%	OPP 3FG%	FT%
2	84.02	78.26	5.76	17.76	17.32	0.44	0.458	0.416	0.359	0.322	0.793
2012 Los Angeles Playoff Offensive Averages
RANK	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	APG	OPP APG	DIFF	FG%	OPP FG%	3FG%	OPP 3FG%	FT%
1	97.0	90.0	7.0	12.5	17.0	-4.6	0.543	0.435	0.318	0.807	0.857

Expect a high-scoring, fast-moving game as the WNBA's two top-scoring teams square off against each other. Minnesota fared better during the regular season, the Sparks have seized the reins.

Advantage: Neutral.

DEFENSE

Minnesota

2012 Minnesota Regular-Season Team Defensive Averages
RANK	RPG	OPP RPG	DIFF	RANK	BPG	OPP BPG	DIFF	RANK	SPG	OPP SPG	DIFF
1	37.79	30.94	6.85	2	4.67	3.08	1.58	9	7.64	7.85	-0.2
2012 Minnesota Playoff Defensive Averages
RANK	RPG	OPP RPG	DIFF	RANK	BPG	OPP BPG	DIFF	RANK	SPG	OPP SPG	DIFF
3	36.66	34.0	2.66	2	4.66	5.33	-0.66	4	8.00	7.33	0.66

Los Angeles

2012 Los Angeles Regular-Season Team Defensive Averages
RANK	RPG	OPP RPG	DIFF	RANK	BPG	OPP BPG	DIFF	RANK	SPG	OPP SPG	DIFF
3	36.88	33.55	3.32	1	5.26	3.05	2.2	4	8.91	8.88	0.03
2012 Los Angeles Playoff Defensive Averages
RANK	RPG	OPP RPG	DIFF	RANK	BPG	OPP BPG	DIFF	RANK	SPG	OPP SPG	DIFF
7	31.5	30.0	1.5	5	3.0	1.5	1.5	7	6.5	8.5	-2.0

Defense is where this series will be won or lost. The Lynx were both the best offensive team in the league this season, but the best defensive team as well, though the latter edge has fallen off a bit in the post season. On the other side of the court, credit Ross. After a succession of coaches each of whom resolutely concurred in describing LA as a "defense-first" team, she finally has the Sparks actually playing at least some defense for significant stretches. Unfortunately, the commitment to defense too rarely seems to last the entire game.

Advantage: Minnesota.

INTANGIBLES

The Sparks come into the conference finals with three days extra rest thanks to dispatching the Silver Stars in two games, not three. Ross will quickly admit that the Sparks are a far better team when coming off rest. On the other hand, the Sparks had several extra days to prepare for Round 1, having finished their regular season several days sooner than most of the other teams headed to the playoffs, but it seemed to take them two-and-a-half quarters to shake the rust off in their first game against San Antonio.

The Lynx, on the other hand, hold home-court advantage in this series. The house was rocking last year when the playoffs came to Target Center, and the Lynx are getting plenty of help in recreating that atmosphere this season. Timberwolves' star Kevin Love bought up 500 tickets in the nosebleeds for Game 1 of the semifinals, then gave them away to fans to help fill the stands. Ricky Rubio followed suit for Game 3 against Seattle, and this time its the Minnesota Twins baseball team who are footing the tab to make sure there are plenty of fans on hand to cheer on the home team when they tip off against the L.A. visitors. Thus far, we haven't heard of any similar plans for the Dodgers or Angels to support the Sparks when the series comes to Los Angeles for Game Two.

Advantage: It's a close call, but we'll read this one in favor of Minnesota since L.A. has struggled so much this year to win on the road. Then again, the Sparks have proved to everyone, themselves included, that they are capable of road wins when it counts, and the Lynx just demonstrated themselves to be vulnerable at home.

PREDICTION

We wouldn't be a bit surprised by an upset, but based on the numbers, let's call it Minnesota in three games.