First off, I don't like a playoff system that puts two-thirds of the teams into thepostseason. What's the point of playing 44 games just to eliminate an expansion team and two other bad and/or unlucky teams? Four teams out of nine would have been much better, for then the regular season would be more than a long exhibition schedule for Columbus, Atlanta and San Jose.
But it's not a perfect world and, as a matter of fact, neither are my predictions. We won't go into my track record, but let's just say that this year, at least, I know something about the teams, the coaches and how everything fits. That said, let's rush in where wise women and men justifiably fear to tread ...
2. San Jose Lasers (18-22, semifinal loss to Columbus): A new look and a healthy Jennifer Azzi should have the San Jose State Event Center rocking all winter -- and might even put 10,000 into the San Jose Arena if all goes well. The Lasers have an energetic new coach in Angela Beck (from Nebraska), a 6-5 rookie in Clarisse Machanguana, two scoring forwards in Sheri Sam and Charlotte Smith and a solid point guard in Sonja Henning. Kedra Holland-Corn and Katryna Gaither are two more rookies to watch and Anita Kaplan is a very good inside scorer. The Lasers are young and lack Colorado's year of playing together, but there's an awful lot of talent available. This is not a team I'd want to face in the playoffs.
3. Seattle Reign (17-23): There's no way the Reign shouldn't have made the playoffs last year, but losing seven straight to end the year can make the impossible come true. Coach Jacque Hullah survived some close scrutiny, and has some new players to work with this year. Kate Starbird is the best-known, but rookie Shalonda Enis will start as well. Val Whiting arrived from San Jose to replace Tari Phillips, but the Reign needs a better year from Kate Paye and a strong ABL debut from Joy Holmes to run with the big dogs. There's also not a lot of depth up front, so look for the Reign to be one of the two wild card teams (the top two teams in each conference qualify automatically).
4. Portland Power (14-26): A backcourt of rookie Elaine Powell and Rage castoff Molly Goodenbour isn't going to strike fear in anyone's hearts, though the thought of trying to stop 6-2 machine Natalie Williams and the impressive young DeLisha Milton will send coaches to another round in the video room. The key to the Power's playoff hopes, though, is Katy Steding, who has never regained the form that made her a star at Stanford. If she and Lisa Harrison can generate some outside offense, the Power could shock some people -- but depth is a problem here too, and it's hard to see Lin Dunn working much magic given her lack of raw materials.
5. Long Beach StingRays (expansion): Well, Clarissa Davis-Wrightsil is a very good player. Yolanda Griffith is supposed to be pretty good, but that's what the WNBA said about Pam McGee. Venus Lacy lost 30 pounds but still can't play a full game. Trisha Stafford has a nice game when her team has the ball. Hey, this is an expansion team, and expansion teams are supposed to be pretty lame -- so why be surprised at this pick? The backcourt is weak, there's not a lot of outside shooting and the bench is short. Wait 'til next year ...
2. Columbus Quest (31-9, ABL champions): I'm a believer. There's no way that Brian Agler and company should have won last year with Nikki McCray as the primary low post option, and losing McCray should pretty much doom the Quest this year. But Agler has won wherever he's gone, and Katie Smith, Valerie Still, Tonya Edwards, Shannon Johnson, Sonja Tate and Andrea Lloyd are all back. This is a very intelligent team and if two of the three rookies (Angie Potthoff, Jannon Roland and Pashen Thompson) develop, the Quest will figure something out. There isn't much depth, though, and if the rookies don't pan out, it could be a frustrating season in Ohio.
3. Philadelphia Rage (21-19, lost in ABL championships): Since there's no alliterative reason to call this team the Rage, couldn't they change the name to something more appropriate? How about the Staleys, for the team's main icon, or the Palestras, in honor of the venerable building they'll play in? But no matter what the nickname, this will still be a very good team. Dawn Staley, Adrienne Goodson and Taj McWilliams are top-flight professional players, but the fate of the team will be decided by people like Marta Sobral, Beth Morgan and Michelle Marciniak. The enigmatic Sobral, who will turn 33 in March, needs to play hard all the time rather than at selected moments, while either Morgan or Marciniak needs to be quick enough to supply some scoring from the two-guard spot. It says here neither will, which is why Philadelphia will get to the playoffs, but quickly disappear.
4. New England Blizzard (16-24): A five-game winning streak at the end of last season got the Blizzard to .333, and maybe Kara Wolters will get them to .500 this year -- but I wouldn't bet on it. K.C. Jones will discover that his NBA coaching resume and a dollar will get him a lousy cup of coffee, and unless Carla Berube is the second coming of John Havlicek, it's going to be a long winter in New England. Jennifer Rizzotti works very hard, Carolyn Jones is a fine player and Wolters is 6-7, but that's about it. The Blizzard will sell lots of tickets, but I wonder how many people will show up when they're 10 games below .500 in February.
As for the playoffs, the crystal ball is a little cloudy. Usually the healthiest team wins, and given Atlanta's injury woes, past and present, I'll have to go with Colorado. But it could be San Jose, or even Columbus again or maybe even Philadelphia.
With six teams in the playoffs, and best-two-out-three matchups the first two rounds, upsets are not only possible, but likely. The only thing for sure is that too many teams will make the playoffs in the first place.
10/10/97
